[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ekd/006356/7019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysis of the Unanticipated Factors in Portfolio Inflows to Indonesia: A SCVAR Approach, 2000: Q1 - 2012: Q4

Author

Listed:
  • Mr Insukindro
  • Arti Adji
  • Aryo Aliyudanto
Abstract
After the 2008 global economic crisis, as one of the emerging markets, Indonesia experiences a lot of capital inflows. The increase in capital inflows stimulated economic activities and caused macroeconomic fluctuations. This study focused on the analysis of pull and push factors that affect the portfolio capital inflows to Indonesia. The study utilized structural cointegrated vector autoregressive (SCVAR), impulse responses function (IRF), and variance decomposition (VD) methods. The method of SCVAR has been developed to analyze the shocks to factors relatively affecting the variation of incoming portfolio inflows (equity and bond inflows) to Indonesia, as well as the responses of the portfolio inflows to shocks to these factors.The results indicated that there was a long-term relationship between the variables, so SCVAR approach could be employed in this study. The results of the impulse responses function showed that the portfolio inflows in the form of bonds generated positive response to the unexpected changes of budget deficit and domestic output growth, while the portfolio inflows in the form of stocks generated positive response to the unexpected changes in foreign output growth, domestic output growth, stock price index, and budget deficit. Furthermore, the results of variance decomposition analysis showed that pull factors, i.e. domestic interest rate and current account balance, were the main determinants that explained the variation of portfolio inflows in the form of bonds, while the domestic interest rate and stock price index were the most dominant variables that explained the variation of portfolio inflows in the form of stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr Insukindro & Arti Adji & Aryo Aliyudanto, 2014. "Analysis of the Unanticipated Factors in Portfolio Inflows to Indonesia: A SCVAR Approach, 2000: Q1 - 2012: Q4," EcoMod2014 7019, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:006356:7019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ecomod.net/system/files/Insukindro-Adji-Aliyudanto_27-April-2014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garg, Reetika & Dua, Pami, 2014. "Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows to India: Determinants and Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 16-28.
    2. Yung-Hsiang Ying & Yoonbai Kim, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows: The Case of Korea and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 954-968, April.
    3. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    4. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, September.
    5. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(3), pages 451-470, September.
    6. Korap, Levent, 2010. "Identification of ‘pull’ & ‘push’ factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 24275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. V. Vance Roley & Lawrence D. Schall, 1988. "Federal deficits and the stock market," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 73(Apr), pages 17-27.
    8. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1998. "A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 8, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    9. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J, 1996. "The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 51-77, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Insukindro INSUKINDRO & Arti ADJI & Aryo ALIYUDANTO, 2016. "Analysis of the Unanticipated Factors in Portfolio Inflows to Indonesia: A SVAR Approach: 2001-2012," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 327-341, June.
    2. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    3. Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows Into Turkey," Working Papers 0605, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    5. Duran, Hasan Engin & Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2022. "The Revival Of The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle And Moderation Of Capital Flows After The Global Financial Crisis (2008/09)," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Tomislav Globan, 2018. "Financial supply cycles in post-transition Europe – introducing a composite index for financial supply," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 482-505, July.
    7. Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows into Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 11-35.
    8. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Kim, Jun Il & Zalduendo, Juan, 2014. "Surges," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 266-285.
      • Mahvash S Qureshi & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Juan Zalduendo & Mr. Jun I Kim, 2012. "Surges," IMF Working Papers 2012/022, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Tidiane KINDA, 2010. "Increasing Private Capital Flows To Developing Countries: The Role Of Physical And Financial Infrastructure In 58 Countries, 1970-2003," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    10. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    11. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    12. Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2003. "Modeling the Demand for Emerging Market Assets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe10, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    13. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    14. Tricia Mangal & Day-Yang Liu, 2020. "The impact of economic freedom on foreign portfolio investments: The case of the Caricom single market and economy," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(2), pages 213-222, March.
    15. Alain Maurin & Sandra Sookram & Patrick Kent Watson, 2006. "Measuring the size of the hidden economy in Trinidad & Tobago, 1973-1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 321-341.
    16. Kumar, Virender & Dua, Pami, 2024. "What explains foreign portfolio investment inflows to BRICS countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 32-46.
    17. Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank.
    18. Ann Cavlovic & Kathleen Day, "undated". "Equalization and the Incentives for Growth: An Empirical Investigation of the "Tax-Back" Effect," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-23, Department of Finance Canada.
    19. Marcin Humanicki & Robert Kelm & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment in the contemporary globalized world: should they be still treated separately?," NBP Working Papers 167, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    20. Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić & Petar Sorić, 2016. "Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 154-168, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indonesia; Macroeconometric modeling; Modeling: new developments;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ekd:006356:7019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theresa Leary (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecomoea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.