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Global inflation synchronization

Author

Listed:
  • Jongrim Ha
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Franziska L. Ohnsorge
Abstract
We study the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. Our methodology allows us to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze commonalities in inflation synchronization across a wide range of inflation measures. We report three major results. First, inflation movements have become increasingly synchronized internationally over time: a common global factor has accounted for about 22 percent of variation in national inflation rates since 2001. Second, inflation synchronization has also become more broad-based: while it was previously much more pronounced among advanced economies than among emerging market and developing economies, it has become substantial in both groups over the past two decades. In addition, inflation synchronization has become significant across all inflation measures since 2001, whereas it was previously prominent only for inflation measures that included mostly tradable goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2019. "Global inflation synchronization," CAMA Working Papers 2019-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-24
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-03/24_2019_ha_kose_ohnsorge.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Auer, Raphael A. & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2014. "Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 129-151.
    2. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2019. "Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30657.
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    6. Raju Huidrom & M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2020. "How important are spillovers from major emerging markets?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 47-63, March.
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    10. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Demirer, Rıza & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Oil price shocks, global financial markets and their connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Hülya Saygılı & Aysun Türkvatan, 2023. "Tradable and non-tradable inflation in Turkey: asymmetric responses to global factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 973-1006, August.
    3. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Cheng-Wen Lee & Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta, 2021. "Reexamining The Quantity Theory Of Money: An Empirical Analysis From The Joint Hypothesis," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 3-12, May.
    5. Aleksei Kiselev & Aleksandra Zhivaykina, 2019. "The role of global relative price changes in international comovement of inflation," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps53, Bank of Russia.
    6. De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael & Franco Bedoya,Sebastian, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9090, The World Bank.
    7. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    8. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer, 2022. "U.S. monetary policy and the predictability of global economic synchronization patterns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 473-492, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global inflation; synchronization; dynamic factor model; advanced economies; emerging markets; developing economies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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