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Role of expectations in a liquidity trap

Author

Listed:
  • Kohei Hasui
  • Yoshiyuki Nakazono
  • Yuki Teranishi
Abstract
A number of previous studies suggest that inflation expectations are important in considering the effectiveness of monetary policy in a liquidity trap. However, the role of inflation expectations can be very different, depending on the type of monetary policy that a central bank implements. This paper reveals how a private agent forms inflation expectation affects the effectiveness of monetary policy under the optimal commitment policy, the Taylor rule, and a simple rule with price-level targeting. We examine two expectation formations: (i) different degrees of anchoring, and (ii) different degrees of forward-lookingness. We show that how to form inflation expectations is less relevant when a central bank implements the optimal commitment policy, while it is critical when the central bank adopts the Taylor rule or a simple rule with price-level targeting. Even for the Japanese economy, the effects of monetary policy on economic dynamics significantly change according to expectation formations under rules other than the optimal commitment policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohei Hasui & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Yuki Teranishi, 2019. "Role of expectations in a liquidity trap," CAMA Working Papers 2019-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-16
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-02/16_2019_hasui_nakazono_teranishi.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Takatoshi Ito, 2021. "An Assessment of Abenomics: Evolution and Achievements," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 190-219, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; Liquidity Trap; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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