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Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India

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  • Jane Golley
  • Rod Tyers
Abstract
The world’s two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working aged to non-working aged. While much of China?s demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation” for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India?s potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of policy choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India," CAMA Working Papers 2012-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Mari Pangestu & Lili Yan Ing, 2016. "ASEAN: Regional Integration and Reforms," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(2), pages 44-60, Summer.
    2. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Meng, Xin, 2023. "China's 40 Years Demographic Dividend and Labor Supply: The Quantity Myth," IZA Discussion Papers 16207, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    5. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Japanese Economic Stagnation: Causes and Global Implications," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 517-536, December.
    6. GOLLEY, Jane & WEI, Zheng, 2015. "Population dynamics and economic growth in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 15-32.
    7. Rafal Chomik & John Piggott, 2015. "Population Ageing and Social Security in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 10(2), pages 199-222, July.
    8. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    9. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Gender 'Rebalancing' in China: A Global-Level Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Funda Hatice Sezgin & Yunus Budak, 2022. "The Growth Impact of Human Development: A Developed- and Developing-Country Comparison," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-1), pages 81-104, June.
    11. Guillaume Marois & Ekaterina Zhelenkova & Balhasan Ali, 2022. "Labour Force Projections in India Until 2060 and Implications for the Demographic Dividend," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 477-497, November.
    12. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    13. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "China's Gender Imbalance and its Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Jin Guo & Yingzhi Xu & Zhengning Pu, 2016. "Urbanization and Its Effects on Industrial Pollutant Emissions: An Empirical Study of a Chinese Case with the Spatial Panel Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-15, August.
    15. Tingzhu Li & Ran Liu & Wei Qi, 2019. "Regional Heterogeneity of Migrant Rent Affordability Stress in Urban China: A Comparison between Skilled and Unskilled Migrants at Prefecture Level and Above," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-26, October.
    16. Wang, Lijian & Béland, Daniel & Zhang, Sifeng, 2014. "Pension fairness in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 25-36.
    17. Majid, Nomaan., 2015. "The great employment transformation in China," ILO Working Papers 994892543402676, International Labour Organization.
    18. Yuqing Geng & Mukasar Maimaituerxun, 2022. "Research Progress of Green Marketing in Sustainable Consumption based on CiteSpace Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, August.
    19. Pengkun Wu & Chong Wu & Yuanyuan Wu, 2018. "Reforming Path of China’s Fertility Policy in Stabilizing Demographic Dividends Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 1225-1243, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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