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Instabilities in Large Economies: Aggregate Volatility Without Idiosyncratic Shocks

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  • Thesmar , David
  • Landier , Augustin
Abstract
The authors study a dynamical model of interconnected firms which allows for certain market imperfections and frictions, restricted here to be myopic price forecasts and slow adjustment of production. Whereas the standard rational equilibrium is still formally a stationary solution of the dynamics, the authors show that this equilibrium becomes linearly unstable in a whole region of parameter space. When agents attempt to reach the optimal production target too quickly, coordination breaks down and the dynamics becomes chaotic. In the unstable, "turbulent", phase the aggregate volatility of the total output remains substantial even when the amplitude of idiosyncratic shocks goes to zero or when the size of the economy becomes large. In other words, crises become endogenous. This suggests an interesting resolution of the "small shocks, large business cycles" puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Thesmar , David & Landier , Augustin, 2014. "Instabilities in Large Economies: Aggregate Volatility Without Idiosyncratic Shocks," HEC Research Papers Series 1052, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Steve Keen, 2015. "Post Keynesian Theories of Crisis," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 298-324, March.
    2. Gualdi, Stanislao & Mandel, Antoine, 2016. "On the emergence of scale-free production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 61-77.
    3. Gualdi, Stanislao & Mandel, Antoine, 2016. "On the emergence of scale-free production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 61-77.
    4. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: insights from an agent-based model," Post-Print hal-01768441, HAL.
    5. Dessertaine, Théo & Moran, José & Benzaquen, Michael & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2022. "Out-of-equilibrium dynamics and excess volatility in firm networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2015. "Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 29-61.
    7. Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: Insights from an agent-based model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-27.

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