[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ebg/heccah/0985.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Subjective Life Horizon and Portfolio Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Spaenjers , Christophe
  • Spira, Sven Michael
Abstract
Using data from a U.S. household survey, we examine the empirical relation between subjective life horizon (i.e., the self-reported expectation of remaining life span) and portfolio choice. We find that equity portfolio shares are higher for investors with longer horizons, ceteris paribus, in line with theoretical predictions. This result is robust to controlling for optimism and health status, accounting for the endogeneity of equity market participation, or instrumenting subjective life horizon with parental survival. Finally, we show that bequest motives can offset the effects of a shortening horizon on portfolio allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Spaenjers , Christophe & Spira, Sven Michael, 2013. "Subjective Life Horizon and Portfolio Choice," HEC Research Papers Series 985, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:0985
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2199513
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    2. Andreas Fagereng & Charles Gottlieb & Luigi Guiso, 2017. "Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 705-750, April.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & E. Elisabet Rutström, 2007. "Estimating Risk Attitudes in Denmark: A Field Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(2), pages 341-368, June.
    5. Luigi Guiso & Michael Haliassos & Tullio Jappelli, 2003. "Household stockholding in Europe: where do we stand and where do we go? [‘Limited market participation and volatility of assets prices’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(36), pages 123-170.
    6. Arjan B. Berkelaar & Roy Kouwenberg & Thierry Post, 2004. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Loss Aversion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 973-987, November.
    7. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
    8. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1985. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 389-408.
    9. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, February.
    10. Rosen, H.S.Harvey S. & Wu, Stephen, 2004. "Portfolio choice and health status," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 457-484, June.
    11. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1995. "Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30, pages 268-292.
    12. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2002. "The Importance of Bequests and Life-Cycle Saving in Capital Accumulation: A New Answer," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 274-278, May.
    13. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    14. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden & Li Gan, 1998. "Subjective Survival Curves and Life Cycle Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Inquiries in the Economics of Aging, pages 259-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Tullio Jappelli, 1999. "The Age‐Wealth Profile And The Life‐Cycle Hypothesis: A Cohort Analysis With A Time Series Of Cross‐Sections Of Italian Households," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(1), pages 57-75, March.
    17. Joachim Inkmann & Alexander Michaelides, 2012. "Can the Life Insurance Market Provide Evidence for a Bequest Motive?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 671-695, September.
    18. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J., 2012. "Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 507-529.
    19. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    20. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2007. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," Chapters, in: Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 2002. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 966-985, October.
    22. Bec, Frédérique & Gollier, Christian, 2006. "Assets Returns Volatility and Investment Horizon: The French Case," IDEI Working Papers 467, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 30 Nov 2008.
    23. James M. Poterba & Andrew Samwick, 2001. "Household Portfolio Allocation over the Life Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: Aging Issues in the United States and Japan, pages 65-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Puri, Manju & Robinson, David T., 2007. "Optimism and economic choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 71-99, October.
    25. Michael D. Hurd, 2009. "Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 543-564, May.
    26. Gan, Li & Gong, Guan & Hurd, Michael & McFadden, Daniel, 2015. "Subjective mortality risk and bequests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 514-525.
    27. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    28. Vicki L. Bogan & Angela R. Fertig, 2013. "Portfolio Choice and Mental Health," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 955-992.
    29. Modigliani, Franco, 1988. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 15-40, Spring.
    30. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
    31. Martin Salm, 2010. "Subjective mortality expectations and consumption and saving behaviours among the elderly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1040-1057, August.
    32. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    33. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    34. Maria Perozek, 2008. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don’t know?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 95-113, February.
    35. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    36. Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long‐Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, April.
    37. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
    38. Berkowitz, Michael K. & Qiu, Jiaping, 2006. "A further look at household portfolio choice and health status," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1201-1217, April.
    39. Bovenberg, A.L. & Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Teulings, C.N., 2007. "Saving and investing over the life cycle and the role of collective pension funds," Other publications TiSEM 6eab1341-eda5-4f21-8c06-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    40. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    41. Hurd, Michael D, 1987. "Savings of the Elderly and Desired Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 298-312, June.
    42. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    43. MOSSIN, Jan, 1968. "Optimal multiperiod portfolio policies," LIDAM Reprints CORE 19, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    44. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
    45. Martin Weber & Elke U. Weber & Alen Nosić, 2013. "Who takes Risks When and Why: Determinants of Changes in Investor Risk Taking," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 847-883.
    46. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Drouhin, Nicolas, 2020. "Non-stationary additive utility and time consistency," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Kárpáti, Daniel, 2023. "Essays in finance & health," Other publications TiSEM 5505e140-1f4d-4f61-a5a5-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Choung, Youngjoo & Chatterjee, Swarn & Pak, Tae-Young, 2022. "Depression and financial planning horizon," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Kárpáti, D.;, 2022. "Household Finance and Life-Cycle Economic Decisions under the Shadow of Cancer," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 22/16, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Cheuk Hee Cheung & Tansel Yilmazer, 2019. "Wealth Management While Dealing with Memory Loss," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 470-485, September.
    6. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M.A. & Salisbury, T.S., 2017. "Retirement spending and biological age," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 58-76.
    7. Okumura, Tsunao & Usui, Emiko, 2021. "Pension Expectations and Household Portfolio Choice of the Elderly in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 694, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Raslan Alzuabi & Sarah Brown & Daniel Gray & Mark N Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2022. "Household saving, health, and healthcare utilization in Japan [Stature, obesity, and portfolio choice]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 473-497.
    9. Lee, Minjoon, 2023. "Portfolio allocation over the life cycle with multiple late-in-life saving motives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Brown, Sarah & Gray, Daniel & Harris, Mark N. & Spencer, Christopher, 2016. "Portfolio Allocation, Income Uncertainty and Households' Flight from Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 10408, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Hurwitz, Abigail & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Sade, Orly, 2022. "Testing methods to enhance longevity awareness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 466-475.
    12. Stöckel, Jannis & van Exel, Job & Brouwer, Werner B.F., 2023. "Adaptation in life satisfaction and self-assessed health to disability - Evidence from the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    13. Du, You, 2023. "Health investment and medical risk: New explanations of the portfolio puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Døskeland, Trond & Kværner, Jens, 2022. "Cancer and portfolio choice: Evidence from Norwegian register data," Other publications TiSEM 9efe1b52-789e-496a-84de-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Bago d'Uva, Teresa & O'Donnell, Owen & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2020. "Who can predict their own demise? Heterogeneity in the accuracy and value of longevity expectations☆," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    16. Ye, Zihan & Zou, Xiaopeng & Post, Thomas & Mo, Weiqiao & Yang, Qianqian, 2022. "Too old to plan? Age identity and financial planning among the older population of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Yang, Qianqian & Ye, Zihan & Chen, Rongda, 2024. "Working longer or working harder? Subjective survival expectations and labor supply in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 827-847.
    18. Trond Døskeland & Jens Soerlie Kvaerner, 2022. "Cancer and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from Norwegian Register Data [The age of reason: financial decisions over the life cycle and implications for regulation]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 407-442.
    19. Francisco Camões & Sofia Vale, 2018. "Housing Valuation, Wealth Perception, and Homeowners’ Portfolio Composition," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 494-508, September.
    20. Ye, Zihan & Post, Thomas, 2020. "What age do you feel? – Subjective age identity and economic behaviors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 322-341.
    21. Nicolas Drouhin, 2016. "Non stationary additive utility and time consistency," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01238584, HAL.
    22. Baeckström, Ylva & Marsh, Ian W. & Silvester, Joanne, 2021. "Variations in investment advice provision: A study of financial advisors of millionaire investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 716-735.
    23. Sofia Vale & Francisco Camões, 2017. "Housing valuation, wealth perception, and households’ portfolio composition," EcoMod2017 10565, EcoMod.
    24. Gabriela Topa & Inmaculada Pra, 2018. "Retirement Adjustment Quality: Optimism and Self-Efficacy as Antecedents of Resource Accumulation," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 1015-1035, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    2. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    3. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    4. Sanna Nivakoski, 2020. "Wealth and the effect of subjective survival probability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 633-670, April.
    5. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
    6. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    7. Kaschützke, B. & Maurer, R., 2016. "Investing and Portfolio Allocation for Retirement," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 567-608, Elsevier.
    8. Vesile Kutlu-Koc & Adriaan Kalwij, 2017. "Individual Survival Expectations and Actual Mortality: Evidence from Dutch Survey and Administrative Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, October.
    9. Servaas van Bilsen & Roger J. A. Laeven & Theo E. Nijman, 2020. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice Under Loss Aversion and Endogenous Updating of the Reference Level," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 3927-3955, September.
    10. Martin Salm, 2010. "Subjective mortality expectations and consumption and saving behaviours among the elderly," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 1040-1057, August.
    11. Andreas Fagereng & Charles Gottlieb & Luigi Guiso, 2017. "Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 705-750, April.
    12. Yang, Qianqian & Ye, Zihan & Chen, Rongda, 2024. "Working longer or working harder? Subjective survival expectations and labor supply in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 827-847.
    13. Zvi Bodie & Jérôme Detemple & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2009. "Life-Cycle Finance and the Design of Pension Plans," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 249-286, November.
    14. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    15. Padmaja Ayyagari & Daifeng He, 2017. "The Role of Medical Expenditure Risk in Portfolio Allocation Decisions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(11), pages 1447-1458, November.
    16. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Other publications TiSEM a7e2b4d8-fed0-4e86-926f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Discussion Paper 2021-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models : Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals," Other publications TiSEM 25d04a47-1020-47eb-ba94-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Salm, Martin, 2006. "Can Subjective Mortality Expectations and Stated Preferences Explain Varying Consumption and Saving Behaviors among the Elderly?," IZA Discussion Papers 2467, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Costanza Torricelli, 2009. "Models For Household Portfolios And Life-Cycle Allocations In The Presence Of Labour Income And Longevity Risk," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0017, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio choice; investment horizon; subjective expectations; life expectancy; bequests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:0985. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Antoine Haldemann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hecpafr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.