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The Natural Interest Rate in Emerging Markets

Author

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  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract
An optimizing model of a small open emerging market economy (SOEME) with dualistic labour markets and two types of consumers, is used to derive the natural interest rate, terms of trade and potential output. Shocks are classified into generic types that affect the natural interest rates. Since parameters depend on features of the labour market and on consumption inequality, the natural rates and the impact of shocks differ from those in a mature small open economy. Subsistence consumption is found to have the largest effect on the natural rates. It reduces the interest rate, raises natural output and the terms of trade. Technology and infrastructure backwardness reduce natural output. The implications for monetary policy are derived. The effect of managed exchange rates combined with different types of inflation targeting is examined through simulations. Endogenous terms of trade make the supply curve steeper in a SOEME, so partial stickiness of the real exchange rate can be beneficial. In general, domestic inflation targeting, with some weight on the output gap, delivers lower volatility. Output response is higher and volatility lower with fixed terms of trade, demonstrating the flatter supply curve. CPI inflation targeting also does well when terms of trade are credibly fixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal, 2008. "The Natural Interest Rate in Emerging Markets," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22379, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22379
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ashima Goyal, 2005. "Incentives from exchange rate regimes in an institutional context," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2005-002, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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    10. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    11. Goyal, Ashima & Dash, Shridhar, 2000. "The Money Supply Process in India: Identification, Analysis and Estimation," MPRA Paper 24632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Zhu, 2016. "Understanding the changing equilibrium real interest rates in Asia-Pacific," BIS Working Papers 567, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ashima Goyal, 2008. "The Structure of inflation, information and labour markets: Implications for monetary policy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2013. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate and evaluating policy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2013-017, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Goyal, Ashima & Tripathi, Shruti, 2014. "Stability and Transitions in Emerging Market Policy Rules," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 153-172.
    5. Goyal, Ashima, 2011. "A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1392-1404, May.
    6. Ashima Goyal, 2010. "Inflationary pressures in South Asia," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 17(2), pages 1-42, December.
    7. Feng Zhu, 2016. "A spectral perspective on natural interest rates in Asia-Pacific: changes and possible drivers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 63-149, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Ashima Goyal, 2011. "Sustainable debt and deficits in Emerging Markets," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 113-136.
    9. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    small open emerging market; optimal monetary policy; dualistic labour markets; natural interest rates; Terms of Trade; natural output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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