[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eaa/ecodev/61.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Causalidad y cointegracion en modelos econometricos: Aplicaciones a los paises de la OCDE y limitaciones de los tests de cointegracion

Author

Listed:
  • Guisan, M.Carmen
Abstract
En este documento se analizan las limitaciones del analisis de cointegracion para la determinacion del caracter causal o espurio de las relaciones economicas. La aplicacion habitual de este enfoque lleva, con frecuencia, a considerar como espurias relaciones que son causales y, ademas, no siempre evita el peligro de considerar como no espurias relaciones que si lo son. Se efectua una aplicacion a la relacion entre Consumo y el PIB en 25 paises de la OCDE, la cual confirma las limitaciones de dicho enfoque. Documentos de la autora en ingles, relacionados con este tema son Guisan(2001a) y (2003), citados en la bibliografia. A general review of cointegration is presented in this paper, emphasizing the limitations of this approach, as the usual application very often leads to declare as spurious many important causal relations, and besides that it does not always avoid the peril of accepting as causal relations that really are spurious. The application to the relation between Private Consumption and Gross Domestic Product in 25 OECD countries confirms the limitations of the usual approach to cointegration. Related papers in English, also downloadable, are Guisan(2001a) and (2003), cited in the bibliography.

Suggested Citation

  • Guisan, M.Carmen, 2002. "Causalidad y cointegracion en modelos econometricos: Aplicaciones a los paises de la OCDE y limitaciones de los tests de cointegracion," Economic Development 61, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ecodev:61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/aeeadepdf/aeeade61.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J Smith, 1999. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 46, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    3. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    11. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    14. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1980. "Selection of Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 331-354, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guisan, M.C. & Iglesias, A., 2002. "Las Industrias Derivadas de la Madera En España (1964-90). Comparacion internacional, modelos econometricos y analisis de causalidad," Economic Development 52, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.
    2. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    3. Neil Karunaratne, 1997. "High-Tech Innovation, Growth and Trade Dynamics in Australia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 151-170, April.
    4. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    5. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, September.
    6. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.
    7. James Davidson, 2013. "Cointegration and error correction," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 7, pages 165-188, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen, 2001. "Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1045-1056.
    9. M.T. Alguacil & V. Orts, "undated". "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward FDI: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 50, FEDEA.
    10. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    11. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    12. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    13. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde‐Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    14. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    15. Climent, Francisco & Meneu, Vicente, 2003. "Has 1997 Asian crisis increased information flows between international markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 111-143.
    16. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit Root Testing," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 4, pages 41-56, Springer.
    17. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    18. Anundsen, André Kallåk, 2013. "Economic Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble," Memorandum 05/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    19. Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : application of an ARX approach," Serie Research Memoranda 0057, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    20. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:ecodev:61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/exusces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.