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The Impact of Soda Taxes: Pass-Through, Tax Avoidance, and Nutritional Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Seiler, Stephan

    (Stanford University)

  • Tuchman, Anna

    (Northwestern University)

  • Yao, Song

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract
We analyze the impact of a tax on sweetened beverages, often referred to as a “soda tax,†using a unique data set of prices, quantities sold, and nutritional information across several thousand taxed and untaxed beverages for a large set of stores in Philadelphia and its surrounding area. We find that the tax is passed through at an average rate of 97%, leading to a 34% price increase. Demand in the taxed area decreases by 46% in response to the tax. There is no significant substitution to untaxed beverages (water and natural juices), but there is a large amount of cross-shopping to stores outside of Philadelphia. After taking into account cross-shopping, the total demand reduction is equal to only 22%. We do not detect a significant reduction in calorie and sugar intake.

Suggested Citation

  • Seiler, Stephan & Tuchman, Anna & Yao, Song, 2019. "The Impact of Soda Taxes: Pass-Through, Tax Avoidance, and Nutritional Effects," Research Papers 3752, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:3752
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    File URL: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/gsb-cmis/gsb-cmis-download-auth/473001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Yunkyung & Giannakas, Konstantinos, 2021. "Market and Welfare Effects on the U.S. Nationwide Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Tax," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315203, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Gonçalves, Judite & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2020. "Brown sugar, how come you taste so good? The impact of a soda tax on prices and consumption," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    3. John Cawley & David Frisvold & David Jones, 2020. "The impact of sugar‐sweetened beverage taxes on purchases: Evidence from four city‐level taxes in the United States," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(10), pages 1289-1306, October.
    4. Hunt Allcott & Benjamin B. Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2019. "Should We Tax Sugar-Sweetened Beverages? An Overview of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 202-227, Summer.
    5. Yichen Zhong & Amy H. Auchincloss & Brian K. Lee & Ryan M. McKenna & Brent A. Langellier, 2021. "Reply to Vale et al. Comment on “Zhong et al. Sugar-Sweetened and Diet Beverage Consumption in Philadelphia One Year after the Beverage Tax. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17 , 1336”," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-2, October.
    6. Schmacker, Renke & Smed, Sinne, 2020. "Do prices and purchases respond similarly to soft drink tax increases and cuts?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    7. Renke Schmacker & Sinne Smed, 2023. "Sin Taxes and Self-Control," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 1-34, August.
    8. Aguilar, Arturo & Gutierrez, Emilio & Seira, Enrique, 2021. "The effectiveness of sin food taxes: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. O'Connell, Martin & Smith, Kate, 2020. "Corrective Tax Design and Market Power," CEPR Discussion Papers 14582, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Arpita Mukherjee & Eshana Mukherjee & Aryan Bisoi, 2024. "Carbonated Beverages Industry in India: Tax Policy to Promote Growth, Innovation and Investment," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Policy Paper 26, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi, India.
    11. Jorge Alé-Chilet & Sarah Moshary, 2022. "Beyond Consumer Switching: Supply Responses to Food Packaging and Advertising Regulations," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 243-270, March.
    12. Lee, Yunkyung & Giannakas, Konstantinos, 2020. "System-wide market and welfare effects of a U.S. sugar-sweetened beverages tax," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304297, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Cengiz, Ezgi & Cengiz, Doruk, 2020. "The Impacts of Soda Taxes in U.S. Localities," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304351, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Neuhofer, Zachary & McFadden, Brandon R. & Rihn, Alicia & Wei, Xuan & Khachatryan, Hayk & House, Lisa, 2020. "Can the updated nutrition facts label decrease sugar-sweetened beverage consumption?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

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