[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20242926.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transactional demand for central bank digital currency

Author

Listed:
  • Nocciola, Luca
  • Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro
Abstract
We shed light on the demand for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a means of payment, based on survey payment data. We provide a quantitative framework to assess transactional demand for CBDC at the point of sale, accommodating a wide range of design choices. We develop a structural model of payment means adoption and usage and estimate CBDC demand based on individuals’ preferences for payment method attributes. We disentangle the friction potentially associated to CBDC adoption, assessing two of its potential drivers: information frictions and gradual diffusion of digital payment methods. We find that modelling adoption is key to understanding CBDC demand. Finally, we show that optimal CBDC design, information campaigns, and network effects can substantially boost demand. JEL Classification: E41, E42, E47

Suggested Citation

  • Nocciola, Luca & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro, 2024. "Transactional demand for central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2926, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242926
    Note: 2600378
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2926~a61b033b8b.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michiel Bijlsma & Carin van der Cruijsen & Nicole Jonker & Jelmer Reijerink, 2021. "What triggers consumer adoption of CBDC?," Working Papers 709, DNB.
    2. Williamson, Stephen D., 2022. "Central bank digital currency and flight to safety," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Naoki Wakamori & Angelika Welte, 2017. "Why Do Shoppers Use Cash? Evidence from Shopping Diary Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 115-169, February.
    4. Schilling, Linda & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Uhlig, Harald, 2024. "Central bank digital currency: When price and bank stability collide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Ulf Von Kalckreuth & Tobias Schmidt & Helmut Stix, 2014. "Using Cash to Monitor Liquidity: Implications for Payments, Currency Demand, and Withdrawal Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1753-1786, December.
    6. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Central bank digital currency in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 54-68.
    7. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    8. David Andolfatto, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on Private Banks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 525-540.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew T. Levin, 2017. "Central Bank Digital Currency and the Future of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 23711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Keister, Todd & Monnet, Cyril, 2022. "Central bank digital currency: Stability and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Davoodalhosseini, Seyed Mohammadreza, 2022. "Central bank digital currency and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Barrdear, John & Kumhof, Michael, 2022. "The macroeconomics of central bank digital currencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Comin, D. & Hobijn, B., 2004. "Cross-country technology adoption: making the theories face the facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 39-83, January.
    14. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army with Only a Signal Corps?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 321-338, November.
    15. Jack Meaning & Ben Dyson & James Barker & Emily Clayton, 2021. "Broadening Narrow Money: Monetary Policy with a Central Bank Digital Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 1-42, June.
    16. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Daniel Sanches & Linda Schilling & Harald Uhlig, 2021. "Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Banking For All?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 225-242, July.
    17. Stephen Williamson, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currency: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(11), pages 2829-2861.
    18. Mr. Charles M. Kahn & Mr. Manmohan Singh & Jihad Alwazir, 2022. "Digital Money and Central Bank Operations," IMF Working Papers 2022/085, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Toni Ahner & Katrin Assenmacher & Peter Hoffmann & Agnese Leonello & Cyril Monnet & Davide Porcellacchia, 2024. "The Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 221-274, October.
    20. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2017. "Money as a Unit of Account," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1537-1574, September.
    21. Ahnert, Toni & Assenmacher, Katrin & Hoffmann, Peter & Leonello, Agnese & Monnet, Cyril & Porcellacchia, Davide, 2022. "The economics of central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2713, European Central Bank.
    22. Mr. Marco Gross & Elisa Letizia, 2023. "To Demand or Not to Demand: On Quantifying the Future Appetite for CBDC," IMF Working Papers 2023/009, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Todd Keister & Daniel Sanches, 2023. "Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 404-431.
    24. Castrén, Olli & Kavonius, Ilja Kristian & Rancan, Michela, 2022. "Digital currencies in financial networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    25. Fegatelli, Paolo, 2022. "A central bank digital currency in a heterogeneous monetary union: Managing the effects on the bank lending channel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    26. Hiep Ngoc Luu & Dinh Dinh Do & Thanh Pham & Viet Xuan Ho & Quynh-Anh Dinh, 2023. "Cultural values and the adoption of central bank digital currency," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(15), pages 2024-2029, September.
    27. Adrian Armas & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2022. "Digital Money and Central Banks Balance Sheet," IMF Working Papers 2022/206, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Katrin Assenmacher & Signe Krogstrup, 2021. "Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: De-linking Cash from Digital Money," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 67-106, March.
    29. Le, Anh H., 2022. "Central bank digital currency and cryptocurrency in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 114734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro & Coschignano, Eliana & Barreiro, Lorena, 2022. "Ensuring adoption of central bank digital currencies – An easy task or a Gordian knot?," Occasional Paper Series 307, European Central Bank.
    31. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World Without Money," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 229-260, July.
    32. Kim Huynh & Jozsef Molnar & Oleksandr Shcherbakov & Qinghui Yu, 2020. "Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency," Staff Working Papers 20-7, Bank of Canada.
    33. Bindseil, Ulrich & Panetta, Fabio & Terol, Ignacio, 2021. "Central Bank Digital Currency: functional scope, pricing and controls," Occasional Paper Series 286, European Central Bank.
    34. Charles A. E. Goodhart, 2000. "Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 189-209, July.
    35. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps," NBER Working Papers 7420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. repec:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:3:p:321-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Adalid, Ramón & Álvarez-Blázquez, Álvaro & Assenmacher, Katrin & Burlon, Lorenzo & Dimou, Maria & López-Quiles, Carolina & Martín Fuentes, Natalia & Meller, Barbara & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Radulova, Pety, 2022. "Central bank digital currency and bank intermediation," Occasional Paper Series 293, European Central Bank.
    38. Fernando E. Alvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi & Esteban Méndez & Diana Van Patten, 2023. "Strategic Complementarities in a Dynamic Model of Technology Adoption: P2P Digital Payments," NBER Working Papers 31280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lambert, Claudia & Larkou, Chloe & Pancaro, Cosimo & Pellicani, Antonella & Sintonen, Meri, 2024. "Digital euro demand: design, individuals’ payment preferences and socioeconomic factors," Working Paper Series 2980, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionysopoulos, Lambis & Marra, Miriam & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Central bank digital currencies: A critical review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Toni Ahner & Katrin Assenmacher & Peter Hoffmann & Agnese Leonello & Cyril Monnet & Davide Porcellacchia, 2024. "The Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 221-274, October.
    3. Assenmacher, Katrin & Bitter, Lea & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "CBDC and business cycle dynamics in a New Monetarist New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2811, European Central Bank.
    4. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    5. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Zhang, Xin, 2023. "Private bank money vs central bank money: A historical lesson for CBDC introduction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Azzone, Michele & Barucci, Emilio, 2023. "Evaluation of sight deposits and central bank digital currency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2023. "Implications of central bank digital currency for financial stability: Evidence from the global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Muñoz, Manuel A. & Soons, Oscar, 2023. "Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC," Working Paper Series 2801, European Central Bank.
    9. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.
    10. Son, Jaemin & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2023. "Central bank digital currency: Payment choices and commercial bank profitability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Mishra, Bineet & Prasad, Eswar, 2024. "A simple model of a central bank digital currency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Vollmar, Steffen & Wening, Fabian, 2024. "The impact of CBDC on a deposit-dependent banking system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Agur, Itai & Ari, Anil & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, 2022. "Designing central bank digital currencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 62-79.
    14. Saroj Bhattarai & Mohammad Davoodalhosseini & Zhenning Zhao, 2024. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Transmission of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-27, Bank of Canada.
    15. Bindseil, Ulrich & Marrazzo, Marco & Sauer, Stephan, 2024. "The impact of central bank digital currency on central bank profitability, risk-taking and capital," Occasional Paper Series 360, European Central Bank.
    16. Sebastian Infante & Kyungmin Kim & Anna Orlik & André F. Silva & Robert J. Tetlow, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Implications of CBDC: A Review of the Literature," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Caccia, Enea & Tapking, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2024. "Central bank digital currency and monetary policy implementation," Occasional Paper Series 345, European Central Bank.
    18. Keister, Todd & Monnet, Cyril, 2022. "Central bank digital currency: Stability and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CBDC; money demand; payments; Random utility; structural model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.