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Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality

Author

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  • Brand, Claus
  • Goy, Gavin
  • Lemke, Wolfgang
Abstract
We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*), and term premia. Similar to Bauer and Rudebusch (2020, AER), π* and r* constitute a time-varying trend for the nominal short-term rate in our model, rendering estimated term premia more stable than standard yield curve models operating with time-invariant means. In line with the literature, our r* estimates display a distinct decline over the last four decades. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E43, G12, E44, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212612
    Note: 92649
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    Cited by:

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    3. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
    4. Dufrénot, Gilles & Rhouzlane, Meryem & Vaccaro-Grange, Etienne, 2022. "Potential growth and natural yield curve in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Mark Mink & Rodney Ramcharan & Iman van Lelyveld, 2020. "How Banks Respond to Distress: Shifting Risks in Europe’s Banking Union," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-006/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Valentin Burban & Bruno De Backer & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2024. "Inflation (De-)Anchoring in the Euro Area," Working papers 965, Banque de France.
    7. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi & SUDO, Nao & HOGEN, Yoshihiko & TAKIZUKA, Yasutaka, 2023. "On the estimation of the natural yield curve," Discussion Paper Series 753, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Mark Mink & Rodney Ramcharan & Iman van Lelyveld, 2020. "How banks respond to distress: Shifting risks in Europe's banking union," Working Papers 669, DNB.
    9. Xia, Ying & Chen, Muyang, 2023. "The Janus face of stateness: China's development-oriented equity investments in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    11. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    12. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Pointner, Wolfgang & van den End, Jan Willem, 2022. "The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: a critical survey," Working Paper Series 2744, European Central Bank.
    13. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model; Bayesian estimation; equilibrium real rate; natural rate of interest; r*; term premia; unobserved components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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