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The aggregate consequences of default risk: evidence from firm-level data

Author

Listed:
  • Besley, Timothy
  • Van Reenen, John
  • Roland, Isabelle
Abstract
This paper studies the implications of perceived default risk for aggregate output and productivity. Using a model of credit contracts with moral hazard, we show that a firm’s probability of default is a sufficient statistic for capital allocation. The theoretical framework suggests an aggregate measure of the impact of credit market frictions based on firm-level probabilities of default which can be applied using data on firm-level employment and default risk. We obtain direct estimates of firm-level default probabilities using Standard and Poor’s PD Model to capture the expectations that lenders were forming based on their historical information sets. We implement the method on the UK, an economy that was strongly exposed to the global financial crisis and where we can match default probabilities to administrative data on the population of 1.5 million firms per year. As expected, we find a strong correlation between default risk and a firm’s future performance. We estimate that credit frictions (i) cause an output loss of around 28% per year on average; (ii) are much larger for firms with under 250 employees and (iii) that losses are overwhelmingly due to a lower overall capital stock rather than a misallocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous productivity. Further, we find that these losses accounted for over half of the productivity fall between 2008 and 2009, and persisted for smaller (although not larger) firms. JEL Classification: D24, E32, L11, O47

Suggested Citation

  • Besley, Timothy & Van Reenen, John & Roland, Isabelle, 2020. "The aggregate consequences of default risk: evidence from firm-level data," Working Paper Series 2425, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202425
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    Cited by:

    1. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    2. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali & Roland, Isabelle, 2023. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the U.K," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117351, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Josh Martin & Rebecca Riley, 2023. "Productivity measurement - Reassessing the production function from micro to macro," Working Papers 033, The Productivity Institute.
    5. Daniel Mead & Isabelle Roland, 2020. "Has the Financial Crisis Undermined Credit Reallocation in the United Kingdom?," CEP Industrial Strategy 08, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Kabiri, Ali & Malone, Vlad & Roland, Isabelle Angeline Madeleine & Spatareanu, Mariana, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121832, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Mariana Spatareanu & Vlad Manole & Ali Kabiri & Isabelle Roland, 2021. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2021-001, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark.
    8. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali & Roland, Isabelle, 2023. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: Evidence from the U.K," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 813-831.
    9. Spatareanu, M. & Manole, V. & Kabiri, A. & Roland, I., 2020. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2058, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Narayan, Shivani & Kumar, Dilip & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Systemically important financial institutions and drivers of systemic risk: Evidence from India," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit frictions; default risk; misallocation; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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