[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20192251.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor share and growth in the long run

Author

Listed:
  • McAdam, Peter
  • Bridji, Slim
  • Charpe, Matthieu
Abstract
This paper establishes some stylized facts of the long run relationship between growth and labor shares using historical data for the United States (1898-2010), the United Kingdom (1856-2010), and France (1896-2010). Performing individual country time-frequency analysis, we demonstrate the existence of long-term cycles in labor share of thirty to fifty years explaining a major part of the variance in the data. Further, the impact of labor share on growth changes sign with the frequency considered from negative at high frequencies to positive at low frequencies. Finally, the positive coefficient associated with the labor share at low frequencies increases over time. JEL Classification: E24, E25, N1

Suggested Citation

  • McAdam, Peter & Bridji, Slim & Charpe, Matthieu, 2019. "Labor share and growth in the long run," Working Paper Series 2251, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192251
    Note: 50336
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2251~e73a1e85d1.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramsey, James B. & Gallegati, Marco & Gallegati, Mauro & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Instrumental variables and wavelet decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1498-1513, November.
    2. Sarah Voitchovsky, 2005. "Does the Profile of Income Inequality Matter for Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 273-296, September.
    3. Growiec, Jakub & McAdam, Peter & Mućk, Jakub, 2018. "Endogenous labor share cycles: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 74-93.
    4. Anthony B. Atkinson & Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "Top Incomes in the Long Run of History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-71, March.
    5. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    6. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1998. "New ways of looking at old issues: inequality and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 259-287.
    7. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2014. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, And Factor Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 108-128, February.
    8. Robert S. Chirinko, 2008. "ó: The Long And Short Of It," CESifo Working Paper Series 2234, CESifo.
    9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    10. Chirinko, Robert S., 2008. "[sigma]: The long and short of it," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 671-686, June.
    11. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Medium Run Redux," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 695-727, June.
    12. H. Uzawa, 1961. "Neutral Inventions and the Stability of Growth Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 28(2), pages 117-124.
    13. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2012. "The Rise of the Service Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2540-2569, October.
    14. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    15. Ricardo,David, 2015. "On the Principles of Political Economy, and Taxation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108075435, September.
    16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    17. Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The Shape of Production Functions and the Direction of Technical Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 517-549.
    18. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    19. Giuseppe Bertola & Reto Foellmi & Josef Zweimüller, 2005. "Income Distribution in Macroeconomic Models," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8058.
    20. Daron Acemoglu, 2003. "Labor- And Capital-Augmenting Technical Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-37, March.
    21. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    22. Groth, Christian & Madsen, Jakob B., 2016. "Medium-term fluctuations and the “Great Ratios” of economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-176.
    23. Schneider, Dorothee, 2011. "The labor share: A review of theory and evidence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-069, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    24. Daniel Halter & Manuel Oechslin & Josef Zweimüller, 2014. "Inequality and growth: the neglected time dimension," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 81-104, March.
    25. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    26. Heinz Kurz, 2010. "Technical progress, capital accumulation and income distribution in Classical economics: Adam Smith, David Ricardo and Karl Marx," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 1183-1222.
    27. Oechslin, Manuel & Halter, David, 2010. "Inequality and Growth: The Neglected Time Dimension," CEPR Discussion Papers 8033, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Hagen M. Krämer, 2011. "Bowley’S Law: The Diffusion Of An Empirical Supposition Into Economic Theory," Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, L'Harmattan, issue 61, pages 19-50.
    29. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    30. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    31. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share: Accumulation or Scarcity?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    32. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James Bernard Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2011. "The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(4), pages 489-508, August.
    33. Barro, Robert J, 2000. "Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
    34. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    35. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Bond vs stock market's Q: Testing for stability across frequencies and over time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-150.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Ezra Oberfield & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Endogenous Education and Long-Run Factor Shares," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 215-232, June.
    2. Joana David Avritzer, 2020. "Estimation of a long run regime for growth and demand through different filtering methods," Working Papers 2004, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2020.
    3. Michael Cauvel & Miguel Alejandro Sanchez, 2023. "Life Expectancy and the Labor Share in the U.S," Working Papers PKWP2308, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Ladislav Suhányi & Alžbeta Suhányiová & Jaroslava Kádárová & Jaroslava Janeková, 2023. "Relationships between Average Wages in the Manufacturing Sector and Economic Indicators of the Manufacturing Sector in the Region of Visegrad Group Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Pelgrin, Florian & Venditti, Alain, 2022. "On the long-run fluctuations of inheritance in two-sector OLG models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Alessandro Bellocchi & Giovanni Marin & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2021. "The Great Fall of Labor Share:Micro Determinants for EU Countries Over 2011-2019," Working Papers 2102, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2021.
    7. Sebastian Zalas & Hubert Drążkowski, 2023. "The Evolution of the Labour Share in Poland: New Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 13-33.
    8. A Heise, 2020. "Wage-led and profit-led regime research – promising scientific research programme or scientific cul-de-sac?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(2), pages 31-49, September.
    9. Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    10. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    11. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2022. "Technological paradigms, labour creation and destruction in a multi-sector agent-based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    12. Jacopo Staccioli & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "Back to the past: the historical roots of labor-saving automation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 27-57, March.
    13. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Whatever Happened to the ‘Goodwin Pattern’? Profit Squeeze Dynamics in the Modern American Labour Market," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 263-286, January.
    14. Anatolijs Prohorovs & Julija Bistrova, 2022. "Labour Share Convergence in the European Union," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, August.
    15. Marco Stamegna, 2024. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: an SVAR analysis for the US economy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(3), pages 881-929, October.
    16. Giovanni Federico & Alessandro Nuvolari & Michelangelo Vasta, 2023. "Inequality in Pre‐Industrial Europe (1260–1850): New Evidence From the Labor Share," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 347-375, June.
    17. Robert A. Blecker & Mark Setterfield, 2020. "On multi-sector and multi-technique models, production functions and Goodwin cycles: a reply to Libman," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 295-306, November.
    18. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    19. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The neo-Goodwinian model reconsidered," Working Papers PKWP1915, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    20. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The Neo-Goodwinian model, reconsidered," FMM Working Paper 47-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    22. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Andre M. Marques, 2022. "Demand and Distribution in a Dynamic Spatial Panel Model for the United States: Evidence from State-Level Data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 05 Oct 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Growiec, Jakub & McAdam, Peter & Mućk, Jakub, 2018. "Endogenous labor share cycles: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 74-93.
    2. Jakub Growiec & Peter McAdam & Jakub Mućk, 2021. "On the Optimal Labor Income Share," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-52, October.
    3. Lawrence Robert Z., 2015. "Recent Declines in Labor's Share in U.S. Income: A Preliminary Neoclassical Account," Working Paper Series rwp15-034, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Gregory Casey & Ryo Horii, 2019. "A Multi-factor Uzawa Growth Theorem and Endogenous Capital-Augmenting Technological Change," ISER Discussion Paper 1051, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Growiec, Jakub & Mućk, Jakub, 2020. "Isoelastic Elasticity Of Substitution Production Functions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(7), pages 1597-1634, October.
    6. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "The Normalized Ces Production Function: Theory And Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 769-799, December.
    7. Cantore, Cristiano & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph & Yang, Bo, 2015. "CES technology and business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 133-151.
    8. Clemens Struck & Adnan Velic, 2017. "Automation, New Technology, and Non-Homothetic Preferences," Trinity Economics Papers tep1217, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Madsen, Jakob B. & Islam, Md. Rabiul & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2018. "Inequality, financial development and economic growth in the OECD, 1870–2011," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 605-624.
    10. Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2017. "The dynamics of hours worked and technology," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 67-82.
    11. Jakub Mućk & Peter McAdam & Jakub Growiec, 2018. "Will The “True” Labor Share Stand Up? An Applied Survey On Labor Share Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 961-984, September.
    12. Reshef, Ariell & Santoni, Gianluca, 2023. "Are your labor shares set in Beijing? The view through the lens of global value chains," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2014. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, And Factor Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 108-128, February.
    14. Michael Knoblach & Fabian Stöckl, 2020. "What Determines The Elasticity Of Substitution Between Capital And Labor? A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 847-875, September.
    15. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Ezra Oberfield & Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Balanced Growth Despite Uzawa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1293-1312, April.
    16. Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma & Mathan Satchi, 2015. "Appropriate Technology and the Labour Share," Studies in Economics 1505, School of Economics, University of Kent, revised Nov 2016.
    17. Chen, Xi, 2017. "Biased Technical Change, Scale, And Factor Substitution In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 488-514, March.
    18. Miguel A León-Ledesma & Mathan Satchi, 2019. "Appropriate Technology and Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 807-835.
    19. Clemens C. Struck, 2017. "On the Interaction of Growth, Trade and International Macroeconomics," Working Papers 201724, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    20. Jakub Bartak & Łukasz Jabłoński, 2020. "Inequality and growth: What comes from the different inequality measures?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 185-212, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth; income distribution; labor share; wavelet analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.