[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20141636.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks in Poland: evidence from a time-varying VAR

Author

Listed:
  • Arratibel, Olga
  • Michaelis, Henrike
Abstract
This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to analyse whether the reaction of output and prices to interest rate and exchange rate shocks has changed across time (1996-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings show that: (1) output appears more responsive to an interest rate shock at the beginning of our sample. Since 2000, absorbing this shock has become less costly in terms of output, notwithstanding some reversal since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The exchange rate shock also has a time-varying effect on output. From 1996 to 2000, output seems to decline, whereas for periods between 2000 and 2008 it has a positive significant effect. (2) Consumer prices appear more responsive to an interest rate shock during the first half of our sample, when Poland experienced high inflation. The impact of an exchange rate shock on prices seems to slightly decrease across time. JEL Classification: C30, E44, E52, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks in Poland: evidence from a time-varying VAR," Working Paper Series 1636, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141636
    Note: 337289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1636.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    6. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
    7. Pereira Manuel Coutinho & Lopes Artur Silva, 2014. "Time-varying fiscal policy in the US," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 157-184, April.
    8. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    9. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    10. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    11. Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K, 2003. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 547-563, October.
    12. Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010. "Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    14. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    15. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, April.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    17. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Elke Hahn & Marcelo Sánchez, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 84-102, November.
    18. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    19. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    20. Harald Uhlig, 1997. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 59-74, January.
    21. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    22. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    23. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 225-245, September.
    24. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    25. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
    26. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    27. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    28. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    29. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2013. "Time‐Varying Dynamics Of The Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 498-525, April.
    30. Fabio Canova & Joaquim Pires Pina, 1998. "Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models," Economics Working Papers 420, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
    31. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2013. "Lost In Transmission? The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels In The Gcc Countries," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-21.
    32. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
    33. Jérôme Creel* & Sandrine Levasseur, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the CEECs: How Important are the Differences with the Euro Area?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 30-59, February.
    34. Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.
    35. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    36. Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 179-207, June.
    37. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Jouchi Nakajima & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2011. "Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with the Ordering of Variables for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-196, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    39. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.
    40. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    41. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    42. Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, 2008. "Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the euro area," Working Paper Research 142, National Bank of Belgium.
    43. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2023. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Face of Uncertainty: The Real Macroeconomic Impact of a Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa during High and Low Uncertainty States," Working Papers 202331, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2024. "Output volatility and exchange rates: New evidence from the updated de facto exchange rate regime classifications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 894-908.
    3. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2015. "The Cost of Euro Adoption in Poland," Working Paper 5779, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    4. Małgorzata Skibińska, 2018. "Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 506-525, July.
    5. Ulrichs Magdalena, 2018. "Identification of Financial and Macroeconomic Shocks in a Var Model of the Polish Economy. A Stability Analysis," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 29-43, April.
    6. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    7. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2019. "Effects of euro area monetary policy on institutional sectors: the case of Portugal," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 42(120), pages 219-236, Diciembre.
    8. Dahem, Ahlem & Skander, Slim & Fatma, Siala Guermazi, 2017. "Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 79759, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    9. Patricia Amalia MERCEA (HANDRO), 2020. "ANALYSIS OF THE MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION INTO CEEs COUNTRIES. A VAR APPROACH," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 5(3), pages 90-102.
    10. Vujanić Vlado & Gligorić Dragan & Žarković Nikola, 2019. "The Contribution of Monetary Policy to Mitigating the Consequences of the World Economic Crisis in Poland," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 57(3), pages 329-350, September.
    11. Milenko Krajišnik & Dragan Gligoriæ & Biljana Gojkoviæ, 2019. "Effects of fiscal consolidation in Western Balkan Countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 527-551.
    12. Rodriguez, Gabriel & Castillo B., Paul & Calero, Roberto & Salcedo Cisneros, Rodrigo & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2024. "Evolution of the exchange rate pass-through into prices in Peru: An empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Justyna Wróblewska, 2020. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability in Central and Eastern European Countries: Evidence from Structural Bayesian MSH-VAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(4), pages 369-412, December.
    14. Mihály Hajnal & György Molnár & Judit Várhegyi, 2015. "Exchange rate pass - through after the crisis: the Hungarian experience," MNB Occasional Papers 2015/121, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    15. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "What Do We Know of Exchange Rate Pass Through?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:5, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    2. Dahem, Ahlem & Skander, Slim & Fatma, Siala Guermazi, 2017. "Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 79759, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    3. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    4. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
    5. Michaelis, Henrike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2017. "Are there differences in the effectiveness of quantitative easing at the zero-lower-bound in Japan over time?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 204-233.
    6. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Anca Podpiera & Branislav Saxa, 2013. "What We Know About Monetary Policy Transmission in the Czech Republic: Collection of Empirical Results," Research and Policy Notes 2013/01, Czech National Bank.
    7. Michal Franta, 2011. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan Using Sign Restrictions within the TVP-VAR Framework," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    9. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    10. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
    11. T. Philipp Dybowski & Max Hanisch & Bernd Kempa, 2018. "The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 471-494, September.
    12. Michaelis, Henrike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2014. "Are there Differences in the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan over Time?," Discussion Papers in Economics 21087, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    13. Chance Ngamanya Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2016. "Evolution Of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism In Malawi: A Tvp-Var Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 33-55, March.
    14. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    15. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    16. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    17. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    18. Vonnák Balázs, 2010. "Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(61), pages 306-351, August.
    19. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    20. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR; exchange rate pass-through; monetary policy transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141636. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.