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The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Willman, Alpo
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • González Pandiella, Alberto
  • Hall, Stephen
Abstract
Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form model of the economy, the minimal state variable solution (MSV), but they do not know the parameters. However, with medium-sized and large models the closed-form MSV solutions are difficult to attain given the large number of variables that could be included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep parameters of their own optimising frameworks. However, they are not assumed to know the structure nor the parameterisation of the rest of the economy, nor do they know the stochastic processes generating shocks hitting the economy. In addition, agents are assumed to know that the changes (or the growth rates) of fundament variables can be modelled as stationary ARMA (p,q) processes, the exact form of which is not, however, known by agents. This approach avoids the complexities of dealing with a potential vast multitude of alternative mis-specified MSVs. Using a new Multi-country Euro area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality we show this approach is compatible with the same limited information assumption that was used in deriving and estimating the behavioural equations of different optimizing agents. We find that there are strong differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared to expectations formed under the assumption of strong rationality. Furthermore, we find that some variation in expansionary fiscal policy in periods of downturns compared to boom periods. JEL Classification: C51, D83, D84, E17, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Willman, Alpo & Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Hall, Stephen, 2011. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations," Working Paper Series 1316, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111316
    Note: 335687
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    2. Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank.
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    1. Angelini, E. & Dieppe, A. & Pierluigi, B., 2015. "Modelling internal devaluation experiences in Europe: Rational or learning agents?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 81-92.
    2. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Emilia Mioara CAMPEANU, 2012. "How can be investigated the fiscal policy effects on the Romanian economy?," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 80-87, May.
    4. Wieland, Volker & Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
    6. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    7. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Willman, Alpo, 2012. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2597-2614.
    8. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    9. Angelini, Elena & Dieppe, Alistair & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2013. "Learning about wage and price mark-ups in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1512, European Central Bank.
    10. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2015. "German and the rest of euro area fiscal policy during the crisis," Discussion Papers 05/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Lombardo, Giovanni & McAdam, Peter, 2012. "Financial market frictions in a model of the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2460-2485.
    12. Eleni Argiri & Stephen G. Hall & Angeliki Momtsia & Daphne Marina Papadopoulou & Ifigeneia Skotida & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2024. "An evaluation of the inflation forecasting performance of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 932-947, July.
    13. Angelini, Elena & Bokan, Nikola & Christoffel, Kai & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Zimic, Srečko, 2019. "Introducing ECB-BASE: The blueprint of the new ECB semi-structural model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2315, European Central Bank.
    14. Dieppe, Alistair & Ortega, Eva & D'Agostino, Antonello & Karlsson, Tohmas & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & Hurtado, Samuel & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
    15. Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2016. "Fiscal policy during the crisis: A look on Germany and the Euro area with GEAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 997-1016.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bounded rationality; expectation; heterogeneity; imperfect information; learning; macro modelling; open-economy macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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