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Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Onorante, Luca
  • Paesani, Paolo
Abstract
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates their linkages in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly owing to exogenous shocks. A sequential dummy procedure provides further evidence of a structural break coinciding with the introduction of the euro and resulting in lower long-run uncertainty. It also appears that the direction of causality has been reversed, and that in the euro period the Friedman-Ball link is empirically supported, consistently with the idea that the ECB can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. JEL Classification: E31, E52, C22

Suggested Citation

  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Onorante, Luca & Paesani, Paolo, 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1229, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101229
    Note: 412615
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB; EMU; GARCH models; inflation; Inflation Uncertainty; time-varying parameters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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