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How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches

Author

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  • Scheicher, Martin
Abstract
This paper applies regression analysis to investigate the fundamental factors of the variation of CDS index tranches. The sample comprises daily data on the tranche premia of the European iTraxx and North American CDX index from the start of the market in summer 2004 to January 2008. I estimate the relationship between tranche premia and market-based measures of credit risk, liquidity risk and interest rate risk. In this context, I analyse how the set of explanatory factors has changed since the start of the credit market turmoil in 2007. Overall, I find that pricing of CDX and iTraxx tranches differs although the specifications of the two contracts are very similar. Since July 2007, tranche investors appear to have repriced CDX contracts to a larger extent than iTraxx contracts. Credit risk and liquidity factors are priced in almost all tranches with liquidity risk playing a larger role since the start of the turmoil. JEL Classification: E43, G12, G13, G14

Suggested Citation

  • Scheicher, Martin, 2008. "How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches," Working Paper Series 910, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008910
    Note: 152802
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp910.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
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    10. Ingo Fender & Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Credit fundamentals, ratings and value-at-risk: CDOs versus corporate exposures," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    11. Dan Covitz & Chris Downing, 2007. "Liquidity or Credit Risk? The Determinants of Very Short‐Term Corporate Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2303-2328, October.
    12. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, April.
    13. Elena Andreou & Nikitas Pittis & Aris Spanos, 2001. "On Modelling Speculative Prices: The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 187-220, April.
    14. V. Coudert & M. Gex, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Post-Print halshs-00321667, HAL.
    15. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gann, Philipp, 2009. "Liquidität, Risikoeinstellung des Kapitalmarktes und Konjunkturerwartung als Preisdeterminanten von Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) - Eine simulationsgestützte Analyse," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 10582, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    2. Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2021. "Disastrous Defaults [Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1727-1772.
    3. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    4. Marra, Miriam, 2015. "The impact of liquidity on senior credit index spreads during the subprime crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 148-167.
    5. Miroslav Mateev, 2019. "Volatility relation between credit default swap and stock market: new empirical tests," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 681-712, October.
    6. Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(24), pages 1925-1945.
    7. Breitenfellner, Bastian & Wagner, Niklas, 2012. "Explaining aggregate credit default swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 18-29.
    8. Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2008. "The ABX: how do the markets price subprime mortgage risk?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    9. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:152:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sheridan Titman & Daisuke Miyakawa & Shuji Watanabe, 2014. "What Determines CDS Prices? Evidence from the Estimation of Protection Demand and Supply," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-28, March.
    11. Scheicher, Martin & Fender, Ingo, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Working Paper Series 1056, European Central Bank.
    12. Schaber, Albert, 2008. "Combination notes: market segmentation and equity transfer," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 7956, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    13. Sarai Criado & Adrian van Rixtel, 2008. "Structured finance and the financial turmoil of 2007-2008: and introductory overview," Occasional Papers 0808, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collateralised Debt Obligation; Correlation; Credit derivative; credit spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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