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Measurement bias in the HICP: what do we know, and what do we need to know?

Author

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  • Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego
  • Wynne, Mark A.
Abstract
The Harmonized Index Of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the primary measure of inflation in the euro area, and plays a central role in the policy deliberations of the European Central Bank (ECB). Among the rationales given for defining price stability as prevailing at some positive measured inflation rate is the possibility that the HICP as published incorporates measurement errors of one sort or another that may cause it to systematically overstate the true rate of inflation in the euro area. The purpose of this paper is to review what is known about the scope of measurement error in the HICP. We conclude that given the scant research on price measurement issues in the EU and the ongoing improvements in the HICP, there is almost no scientific basis at this time for a point (or even an interval) estimate of a positive bias in the HICP. JEL Classification: C43, E31

Suggested Citation

  • Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Wynne, Mark A., 2002. "Measurement bias in the HICP: what do we know, and what do we need to know?," Working Paper Series 131, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2002131
    Note: 54288
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp131.pdf
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    1. Is 2% still the solution?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2015-03-30 17:27:51

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    Cited by:

    1. Jochen Hartwig, 2005. "On Misusing National Accounts Data for Governance Purposes," KOF Working papers 05-101, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2003. "Reform der geldpolitischen Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(7), pages 110-117.
    3. Andrew Filardo & Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Back to the future? Assessing the deflation record," BIS Working Papers 152, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Reis, Hugo J. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2006. "Hedonic prices indexes for new passenger cars in Portugal (1997-2001)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 890-908, December.
    5. Mark A. Wynne, 2005. "An estimate of the measurement bias in the HICP," Working Papers 0509, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    7. Henning Ahnert & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Quality adjustment of European price statistics and the role for hedonics," Occasional Paper Series 15, European Central Bank.
    8. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Rossi, Sergio, 2004. "The enlargement of the euro area: what lessons can be learned from EMU?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 947-970, January.
    10. Hochstein Martin, 2018. "The Fairy Tale of Low Inflation in the Euro Area," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-4, December.
    11. Jakub Rybacki & Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek, 2018. "Is HICP really harmonized? Problems with quality adjustments and new products," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 97-116.
    12. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2004. "The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 19, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    13. repec:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:4:p:381-404 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J., 2004. "Looking back at the international deflation record," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-311, December.
    15. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    16. Huang Ning & Wimalaratne Waruna & Pollard Brent, 2017. "The Effects of the Frequency and Implementation Lag of Basket Updates on the Canadian CPI," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 33(4), pages 979-1004, December.
    17. Mark A. Wynne, 2011. "Microeconomic Aspects of the Globalization of Inflation: A Joint Conference with the Swiss National Bank," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 30-34.
    18. Sintos, Andreas, 2023. "Does inflation worsen income inequality? A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    19. Gian Maria Tomat, 2005. "Prices, Product Differentiation And Quality Measurement: A Comparison Between Hedonic And Matched Model Methods," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 547, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Jakob de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Renske Maas & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Inflation in the euro area and why it matters," DNB Occasional Studies 1403, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices; HICP; measurement error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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