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Modeling Household Formation and Housing Demand in Denmark using the Dynamic Microsimulation Model SMILE

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Abstract
We utilize the newly developed dynamic microsimulation model SMILE (Simulation Model for Individual Lifecycle Evaluation) to make a long-term forecast of detailed housing demand both in terms of key aggregate figures and compositional features of future Danish housing demand. SMILE simulates the life course of the full Danish population with respect to three main types of events: demographic, socioeconomic, and housing-related events. Demographic events include ageing, births, deaths, migration, leaving home, and couple formation and dissolution - all of which are key indirect drivers of future housing demand. Socioeconomic events such as education attendance and attainment, and labor market events are also important indirect drivers of housing demand because they are closely linked to the timing and direction of households' moving patterns. Finally, households move spatially and between dwelling types based on historically observed moving patterns and estimated transition probabilities by using the tree-based classification model. The key results from the simulations are: changing patterns of cohabitation with a decreasing average household size is projected to increase the number of households by roughly one-third above what the general increase in population indicates. Increasing urbanization leads to an increasing demand for multi-dwelling houses. An ageing population is expected to pent-up the demand for smaller dwellings, especially rental housing.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas Zangenberg Hansen & Peter Stephensen, 2013. "Modeling Household Formation and Housing Demand in Denmark using the Dynamic Microsimulation Model SMILE," DREAM Working Paper Series 201304, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
    • Handle: RePEc:dra:wpaper:201304
    Note: Conference paper for the 4th General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association
    as

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    File URL: http://www.dreammodel.dk/SMILE/N2013_02.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Stephensen, 2012. "SBAM: An Algorithm for Pair Matching," DREAM Working Paper Series 201201, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cathal O'Donoghue & Gijs Dekkers, 2018. "Increasing the Impact of Dynamic Microsimulation Modelling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 61-96.
    2. Karlsson, Kenneth B. & Petrović, Stefan N. & Næraa, Rikke, 2016. "Heat supply planning for the ecological housing community Munksøgård," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1733-1747.
    3. Andersen, Kristoffer Steen & Wiese, Catharina & Petrovic, Stefan & McKenna, Russell, 2020. "Exploring the role of households’ hurdle rates and demand elasticities in meeting Danish energy-savings target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Peter Stephensen, 2013. "The Danish Microsimulation Model SMILE – An overview," DREAM Working Paper Series 201305, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
    5. Petrović, Stefan N. & Karlsson, Kenneth B., 2016. "Residential heat pumps in the future Danish energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 787-797.
    6. Jonas Zangenberg Hansen & Peter Stephensen & Joachim Borg Kristensen, 2013. "Household Formation and Housing Demand Forecasts," DREAM Working Paper Series 201308, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.

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    1. Peter Stephensen, 2013. "The Danish Microsimulation Model SMILE – An overview," DREAM Working Paper Series 201305, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
    2. Jonas Zangenberg Hansen & Peter Stephensen & Joachim Borg Kristensen, 2013. "Household Formation and Housing Demand Forecasts," DREAM Working Paper Series 201308, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population projections; education; household projections; housing demand; microsimulation;
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