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Fairness of Public Pensions and Old-Age Poverty

Author

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  • Friedrich Breyer
  • Stefan Hupfeld
Abstract
In several OECD countries, public pay-as-you-go financed pension systems have undergone major reforms in which future retirement benefit promises have been scaled down. A consequence of these reforms is that especially in countries with a tight tax-benefit linkage, the retirement benefit claims of low-income workers might not even exceed the minimum income guarantee which the government provides the aged. Recently, some German politicians have criticized this likely development because it was unjust that persons who have paid contributions over a long working life end up with no higher benefits than people who have never worked or paid any contributions. However, the government defended the current retirement benefit formula with the argument that every Euro paid as contributions had exactly the same value in generating future retirement benefits. But this logic has been questioned recently, e.g. by Breyer and Hupfeld (2009), since the value of a contributed Euro depends on the life expectancy of the individual, which is positively correlated with annual income. In that earlier paper, we introduced the concept of "distributive neutrality", which takes income-group-specific differences in life expectancy into account. The present paper estimates the relationship between annual earnings and life expectancy of German retirees empirically and shows how the formula that links benefits to contributions would have to be modified to achieve distributive neutrality. We compare the new formula to the benefit formulas in other OECD countries and analyze a data set provided by the German Pension Insurance Office on a large cohort of pensioners to find out how the old-age poverty rate would be affected by the proposed change of the benefit formula. Finally, we discuss other possible effects of a change in the benefit formula, especially on the labour supply of different earnings groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Hupfeld, 2008. "Fairness of Public Pensions and Old-Age Poverty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 817, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp817
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    Cited by:

    1. Haan, Peter & Kemptner, Daniel & Lüthen, Holger, 2020. "The rising longevity gap by lifetime earnings – Distributional implications for the pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    2. Gilles Le Garrec, 2015. "Increased longevity and social security reform: questioning the optimality of individual accounts when education matters," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 329-352, April.
    3. Volker Grossmann & Johannes Schünemann & Holger Strulik, 2024. "Fair Pension Policies with Occupation-Specific Ageing," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 2835-2875.
    4. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2016v:42i:03p:465 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Knell, Markus, 2021. "Actuarial deductions for early retirement," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 141-167, June.
    6. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Unemployment, human capital depreciation and pension benefits: an empirical evaluation of German data," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 223-241, April.
    7. Kallweit, Manuel & Fehr, Hans & Kindermann, Fabian, 2011. "Should pensions be progressive? Yes, at least in Germany!," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48708, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Ludwig, Alexander, 2016. "Das Deutsche Rentensystem: Thesen zur derzeitigen Diskussion um "Umkehr"-Reformen," SAFE White Paper Series 40, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    9. Markus Knell, 2016. "Grundlagen eines soliden und solidarischen Pensionskontensystems," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 42(3), pages 465-495.
    10. Tim Krieger & Christine Meemann & Stefan Traub, 2022. "Inequality, Life Expectancy, and the Intragenerational Redistribution Puzzle - Some Experimental Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9677, CESifo.
    11. Stefan Arent & Wolfgang Nagl, 2010. "A Fragile Pillar: Statutory Pensions and the Risk of Old-Age Poverty in Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 66(4), pages 419-441, December.
    12. Monika Riedel & Helmut Hofer, 2013. "Determinants of the Transition from Work into Retirement," NRN working papers 2013-10, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    13. Hans Fehr & Franz Ruland & Gisela Färber & Annelie Buntenbach, 2012. "Beitragssenkung und Zuschussrente: Ist das eine nachhaltige Rentenpolitik?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(19), pages 04-16, October.
    14. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2015. "Health care expenditures and longevity: is there a Eubie Blake effect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(1), pages 95-112, January.
    15. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314, February.
    16. No authors listed, 2016. "Überlegungen zur fairen und nachhaltigen Ausgestaltung eines Pensionskontensystems," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 159, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    17. Hans Fehr & Martin Werding & Axel Börsch-Supan & Alfred Boss & Jörg Asmussen & Enzo Weber & Markus Kurth, 2014. "Geplante Rentenreform: Größere Gerechtigkeit oder falsches Signal?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(05), pages 03-25, March.
    18. Fehr, Hans & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian, 2013. "Should pensions be progressive?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 94-116.
    19. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2013. "Generational Policy and Aging in Closed and Open Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1719-1800, Elsevier.
    20. Keivan Diakite & Pierre Devolder, 2021. "Progressive Pension Formula and Life Expectancy Heterogeneity," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-19, July.
    21. Wolfgang Nagl, 2014. "Lohnrisiko und Altersarmut im Sozialstaat," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 54.
    22. Stefan Arent & Alexander Eck & Oskar Krohmer & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nagl & Joachim Ragnitz & Marcel Thum, 2011. "Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Sachsens im Ländervergleich: Bestandsaufnahme und Perspektiven: Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 59, May.
    23. Schünemann, Johannes & Grossmann, Volker & Strulik, Holger, 2023. "Fair Pension Policies with Occupation-Specific Aging," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277593, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social security; life expectancy; poverty; redistribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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