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Global Risk and the Dollar

Author

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  • Georgios Georgiadis
  • Gernot J. Müller
  • Ben Schumann
Abstract
The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global financial conditions and a synchronized contraction of global economic activity. We benchmark these effects against counterfactuals in which the dollar does not appreciate. In the absence of dollar appreciation, the contractionary impact of a global risk shock is much weaker, both in the rest of the world and the US. For the rest of the world, contractionary financial channels thus dominate expansionary expenditure switching when global risk rises and the dollar appreciates.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Global Risk and the Dollar," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2057, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2057
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    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
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    4. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona & Van Robays, Ine, 2023. "China’s footprint in global financial markets," Working Paper Series 2861, European Central Bank.
    5. Fisera, Boris, 2024. "Exchange rates and the speed of economic recovery: The role of financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
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    7. Kuester, Keith & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Müller, Gernot & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 15689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2024. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollar exchange rate; global risk shocks; international transmission; Bayesian proxy structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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