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Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Hellstrand

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Jessica Nisén

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Vitor Miranda
  • Peter Fallesen
  • Lars Dommermuth
  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract
With their historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries. This raises the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline, and analyse to what extent it is attributable to tempo or to quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births, but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-thirties. Large-scale fertility declines at ages above 30 have not been previously documented in these countries. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from two children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility, below 1.6, and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be updated, and call into question the broader theories linking fertility and gender equality. Keywords: Nordic fertility regime, period fertility, cohort fertility, fertility timing, forecasting

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Vitor Miranda & Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-007
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-007
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    Cited by:

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    2. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "Less partnering, less children, or both? Analysis of the drivers of first-birth decline in Finland since 2010?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Brian Buh, 2021. "Measuring the Effect of Employment uncertainty on Fertility in Europe (A literature review)," VID Working Papers 2103, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    4. Nicholas Campisi & Hill Kulu & Júlia Mikolai & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "A spatial perspective on the Nordic fertility decline: the role of economic and social uncertainty in fertility trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Bodin, Maja & Björklund, Jenny, 2022. "“Can I take responsibility for bringing a person to this world who will be part of the apocalypse!?”: Ideological dilemmas and concerns for future well-being when bringing the climate crisis into repr," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    6. Ewa Batyra & Tiziana Leone & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Denmark; Finland; Iceland; Norway; Sweden;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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