[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/2325.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Inter-Release Time between Sequentially Released Products

Author

Listed:
Abstract
Marketers routinely use timing as a segmentation device through sequential product releases.While there has been much theoretical research on the optimal introduction strategy of sequential releases, there is little empirical research on this problem. This paper develops an econometric model to empirically solve the inter-release timing problem: it involves (1) developing and estimating a structural model of consumers’ choice for sequentially released products and (2) using the estimates of the structural model to solve for the optimal inter-release time. The empirical application focuses on the movie industry, where we specifically address the issue of the inter-release time between a theatrical movie and its DVD version. We find that consumers are indeed forward looking; a shrinking movie-DVD release window does negatively impact box office revenues, but there is a tradeoff in that there is greater residual buzz from the movie marketing that supports the sales of DVD due to the shorter time window. This leads to an inverted U shaped relationship between movie-DVD release window and revenues, and the theater-DVD window that maximizes industry revenue for the average movie during the data period is 2.5 months.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackie Y. Luan & K. Sudhir, 2022. "Optimal Inter-Release Time between Sequentially Released Products," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2325, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d23/d2325.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julie Holland Mortimer, 2004. "Price Discrimination and Copyright Law: Evidence from the Introduction of DVDs," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2055, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    3. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
    4. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and consumer inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, September.
    5. K. Sudhir, 2001. "Competitive Pricing Behavior in the Auto Market: A Structural Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 42-60, January.
    6. Anita Rao, 2015. "Online Content Pricing: Purchase and Rental Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 430-451, May.
    7. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    8. Ramya Neelamegham & Pradeep Chintagunta, 1999. "A Bayesian Model to Forecast New Product Performance in Domestic and International Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 115-136.
    9. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    10. Lynn O. Wilson & John A. Norton, 1989. "Optimal Entry Timing for a Product Line Extension," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17.
    11. Keane, Michael P, 1997. "Modeling Heterogeneity and State Dependence in Consumer Choice Behavior," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 310-327, July.
    12. De Vany, Arthur & Lee, Cassey, 2001. "Quality signals in information cascades and the dynamics of the distribution of motion picture box office revenues," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 593-614, March.
    13. K. Sudhir, 2001. "Competitive Pricing Behavior in the US Auto Market: A Structural Analysis," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm228, Yale School of Management.
    14. Weiss, Allen M, 1994. "The Effects of Expectations on Technology Adoption: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 341-360, December.
    15. Ulf Olsson, 1979. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the polychoric correlation coefficient," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 44(4), pages 443-460, December.
    16. K. Sridhar Moorthy & I. P. L. Png, 1992. "Market Segmentation, Cannibalization, and the Timing of Product Introductions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 345-359, March.
    17. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    18. Mohanbir S. Sawhney & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1996. "A Parsimonious Model for Forecasting Gross Box-Office Revenues of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 113-131.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jackie Y. Luan & K. Sudhir, 2022. "Optimal Inter-release Timing for Sequentially Released Products," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 9(1), pages 25-46, June.
    2. Dongling Huang & Christian Rojas & Frank Bass, 2008. "What Happens When Demand Is Estimated With A Misspecified Model?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 809-839, December.
    3. Chan, Tat Y. & Narasimhan, Chakravarthi & Yoon, Yeujun, 2017. "Advertising and price competition in a manufacturer-retailer channel," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 694-716.
    4. S. Sriram & Pradeep K. Chintagunta & Ramya Neelamegham, 2006. "Effects of Brand Preference, Product Attributes, and Marketing Mix Variables in Technology Product Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 440-456, September.
    5. Javier D. Donna, 2021. "Measuring long‐run gasoline price elasticities in urban travel demand," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 945-994, December.
    6. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Satoshi Myojo & Yuichiro Kanazawa, 2010. "On Asymptotic Properties of the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand and Supply Systems When Demographically-Categorized Purchasing Pattern Data are Available," Discussion Papers 1009, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    8. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    9. Sergio Meza & K. Sudhir, 2010. "Do private labels increase retailer bargaining power?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 333-363, September.
    10. Lu, Zhentong & Zhang, Sisi & Hong, Jian, 2021. "Examining the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Jiang, Renna & Manchanda, Puneet & Rossi, Peter E., 2009. "Bayesian analysis of random coefficient logit models using aggregate data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 136-148, April.
    12. Richards, Timothy J. & Patterson, Paul M. & Hamilton, Stephen F., 2007. "Fast Food, Addiction, and Market Power," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1-23, December.
    13. Joao Macieira, 2007. "Extending the Frontier: A Structural Model of Investment and Technological Competition in the Supercomputer Industry," Working Papers e07-10, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Tomohiro Ando, 2018. "Merchant selection and pricing strategy for a platform firm in the online group buying market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 263(1), pages 209-230, April.
    15. Leheyda, Nina, 2008. "Market Power, Multimarket Contact and Pricing: Some Evidence from the US Automobile Market," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-118, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Sun, Yutec & Ishihara, Masakazu, 2019. "A computationally efficient fixed point approach to dynamic structural demand estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 563-584.
    17. Chu, Yanlai & Chu, Junhong & Liu, Hongju, 2021. "The impact of mergers and acquisitions on brand equity: A structural analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 615-638.
    18. A. Yeşim Orhun & Sriram Venkataraman & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2016. "Impact of Competition on Product Decisions: Movie Choices of Exhibitors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 73-92, January.
    19. Wilhelm, Wilbert E. & Xu, Kaihong, 2002. "Prescribing product upgrades, prices and production levels over time in a stochastic environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 601-621, May.
    20. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2021. "Foundations of Demand Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2301, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Movies; sequential releases; entertainment industry; structural model; segmentation.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.