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Counterfactuals with Latent Information

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Abstract
We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about payoff-relevant states of the world, represented as an information structure. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents' information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and actions, there is a finite dimensional description of the sharp counterfactual prediction, even though the latent parameter, the information structure, is in"nite dimensional.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Bergemann & Benjamin Brooks & Stephen Morris, 2019. "Counterfactuals with Latent Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2162R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2162r2
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    Cited by:

    1. Kocourek, Pavel & Steiner, Jakub & Stewart, Colin, 2024. "Boundedly rational demand," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 19(4), November.
    2. Ashesh Rambachan, 2022. "Identifying Prediction Mistakes in Observational Data," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Artificial Intelligence, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Counterfactuals; Bayes correlated equilibrium; information structure; linear program;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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