[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/crs/wpaper/2009-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

HIV/AIDS and Poverty in South Africa : A Bayesian Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Federica MARZO

    (Crest)

  • Fabrice MURTIN

    (Crest)

Abstract
In this paper we estimate the causal impact of HIV/AIDS on monetary poverty. Using a paneldatabase from South Africa, we model the consequences of illness on both labor income andtransfers. We treat endogeneity and selection problems associated to HIV/AIDS through using aselection model that includes correlated fixed-effects both in the level and the participationequations, which are estimated simultaneously via original Bayesian methods. While no significantimpact of HIV/AIDS on household labor income is found due to households recomposition, asignificant and asymmetric impact on income transfers emerges. For urban populations, we find thatHIV/AIDS has a positive impact on the probability of receiving social and private transfers, servingto marginally reduce poverty, while for rural populations, HIV/AIDS causes a substantial fall inreceived transfers and dramatically increases chronic poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Federica MARZO & Fabrice MURTIN, 2009. "HIV/AIDS and Poverty in South Africa : A Bayesian Estimation," Working Papers 2009-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2009-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://crest.science/RePEc/wpstorage/2009-12.pdf
    File Function: Crest working paper version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, T. S., 2004. "Measuring the Impacts of Working-Age Adult Mortality on Small-Scale Farm Households in Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 91-119, January.
    2. Ethan Ligon & Jonathan P. Thomas & Tim Worrall, 2000. "Mutual Insurance, Individual Savings and Limited Commitment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(2), pages 216-246, April.
    3. Beegle, Kathleen, 2005. "Labor Effects of Adult Mortality in Tanzanian Households," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 655-683, April.
    4. Kawachi, I. & Kennedy, B.P. & Glass, R., 1999. "Social capital and self-rated health: A contextual analysis," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(8), pages 1187-1193.
    5. Case, Anne & Deaton, Angus, 1998. "Large Cash Transfers to the Elderly in South Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1330-1361, September.
    6. Harsha Thirumurthy & Joshua Graff Zivin & Markus Goldstein, 2008. "The Economic Impact of AIDS Treatment: Labor Supply in Western Kenya," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(3), pages 511-552.
    7. Kathleen Beegle & Joachim De Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2008. "Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of HIV/AIDS," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 299-326, January.
    8. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    9. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
    10. Kawachi, I. & Kennedy, B.P. & Lochner, K. & Prothrow-Stith, D., 1997. "Social capital, income inequality, and mortality," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(9), pages 1491-1498.
    11. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    12. Mather, David & Donovan, Cynthia & Jayne, Thomas S. & Weber, Michael T. & Chapoto, Antony & Mazhangara, Edward & Bailey, Linda & Yoo, Kyeongwon & Yamano, Takashi & Mghenyi, Elliot W., 2004. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Household Responses to Adult Mortality in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications For HIV/AIDS Mitigation And Rural Development Policies," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54571, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    13. Ainsworth, Martha & Dayton, Julia, 2003. "The Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on the Health of Older Persons in Northwestern Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 131-148, January.
    14. Antony Chapoto & T. S. Jayne, 2008. "Impact of AIDS-Related Mortality on Farm Household Welfare in Zambia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 327-374, January.
    15. Magali Beffy & Moshe Buchinsky & Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka & Francis Kramarz, 2006. "The Returns to Seniority in France (and Why are They Lower than in the United States ?)," Working Papers 2006-05, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    16. Zivin, Joshua Graff & Thirumurthy, Harsha & Goldstein, Markus, 2009. "AIDS treatment and intrahousehold resource allocation: Children's nutrition and schooling in Kenya," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 1008-1015, August.
    17. Frikkie Booysen & Servaas Van Der Berg, 2005. "The Role Of Social Grants In Mitigating The Socio‐Economic Impact Of Hiv/Aids In Two Free State Communities1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(s1), pages 545-563, December.
    18. Maitra, Pushkar & Ray, Ranjan, 2003. "The effect of transfers on household expenditure patterns and poverty in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 23-49, June.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10840 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Lachaud, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "HIV prevalence and poverty in Africa: Micro- and macro-econometric evidences applied to Burkina Faso," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 483-504, May.
    21. M Lundberg & M Over & P Mujinja, 2000. "Sources of Financial Assistance for Households Suffering an Adult Death in Kagera, Tanzania," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 420-443, December.
    22. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
    23. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    24. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
    25. Coate, Stephen & Ravallion, Martin, 1993. "Reciprocity without commitment : Characterization and performance of informal insurance arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, February.
    26. Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 75-79, May.
    27. CN Morris & DR Burdge & EJ Cheevers, 2000. "Economic Impact of HIV Infection in a Cohort of Male Sugar Mill Workers in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 413-419, December.
    28. Schatz, Enid & Ogunmefun, Catherine, 2007. "Caring and Contributing: The Role of Older Women in Rural South African Multi-generational Households in the HIV/AIDS Era," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1390-1403, August.
    29. Rebecca L. Thornton, 2008. "The Demand for, and Impact of, Learning HIV Status," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1829-1863, December.
    30. F. Le R. Booysen, 2004. "Income And Poverty Dynamics In Hiv/Aids‐Affected Households In The Free State Province Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(3), pages 522-545, September.
    31. de Walque, Damien, 2006. "Who gets AIDS and how ? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3844, The World Bank.
    32. Masanjala, Winford, 2007. "The poverty-HIV/AIDS nexus in Africa: A livelihood approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 1032-1041, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5lbapr8bjc81qrd7pa70f0iqp1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5lbapr8bjc81qrd7pa70f0iqp1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fabrice Murtin & Federica Marzo, 2013. "Hiv/Aids And Poverty In South Africa: A Bayesian Estimation Of Selection Models With Correlated Fixed-Effects," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(1), pages 118-139, March.
    4. Kathleen Beegle & Joachim De Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2008. "Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of HIV/AIDS," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 299-326, January.
    5. Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Does Prime-Age Mortality Reduce Per-Capita Household Income? Evidence from Rural Zambia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 51-62.
    6. Azomahou, Theophile & Soete, Luc & Diene, Bity & Diene, Mbaye, 2012. "Optimal health investment with separable and non-separable preferences," MERIT Working Papers 2012-047, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Harsha Thirumurthy & Joshua Graff Zivin & Markus Goldstein, 2008. "The Economic Impact of AIDS Treatment: Labor Supply in Western Kenya," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(3), pages 511-552.
    8. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, T S, 2005. "Working-Age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 619-653, April.
    9. Wilson, Nicholas, 2016. "Antiretroviral therapy and demand for HIV testing: Evidence from Zambia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 221-240.
    10. Jean-Noël Senne, 2014. "Death and schooling decisions over the short and long run in rural Madagascar," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 497-528, April.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7310 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jayne, Thomas S. & Mather, David & Mghenyi, Elliot W., 2006. "Smallholder Farming Under Increasingly Difficult Circumstances: Policy and Public Investment Priorities for Africa," Food Security International Development Policy Syntheses 54507, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    13. Friedman, Willa Helterline, 2018. "Antiretroviral drug access and behavior change," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 392-411.
    14. Chapoto, Antony & Jayne, Thomas S., 2005. "Impact of HIV/AIDS-Related Deaths on Rural Farm Households' Welfare in Zambia: Implications for Poverty Reduction Strategies," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 54473, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    15. Ikegami, Munenobu, 2009. "Agricultural productivity and mortality: evidence from Kagera, Tanzania," MPRA Paper 15065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
    17. Francesco Strobbe & Claudia Olivetti & Mireille Jacobson, 2010. "Breaking the Net: Family Structure and Street Children in Zambia," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 11110, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    18. Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Thiele, Rainer, 2009. "Does AIDS-related mortality reduce per-capita household income? Evidence from rural Zambia," Kiel Working Papers 1530, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Chicoine, Luke, 2012. "AIDS mortality and its effect on the labor market: Evidence from South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 256-269.
    20. Sanghamitra Das & Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay & Tridip Ray, 2008. "Negative reality of the HIV positives: Evaluating welfare loss in a low prevalence country," Discussion Papers 08-02, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    21. Nikolov, Plamen & Bonci, Matthew, 2020. "Do public program benefits crowd out private transfers in developing countries? A critical review of recent evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    22. Antony Chapoto & T. S. Jayne, 2008. "Impact of AIDS-Related Mortality on Farm Household Welfare in Zambia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 327-374, January.
    23. Michael Grimm, 2006. "Mortality and survivors'consumption," Working Papers DT/2006/13, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2009-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Secretariat General (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/crestfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.