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Covered Interest Parity Arbitrage

Author

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  • Schrimpf, Paul
  • Rime, Dagfinn
  • Syrstad, Olav
Abstract
We show that it is crucial to account for the heterogeneity in funding costs, both across banks and across currency areas, in order to understand recently documented deviations from Covered Interest Parity (CIP). When CIP arbitrage is implemented accounting for marginal funding costs and realistic risk-free investment instruments, the no-arbitrage relation holds fairly well for the majority of market participants. A narrow set of global high-rated banks, however, does enjoy riskless arbitrage opportunities. Such arbitrage opportunities emerge as an equilibrium outcome as FX swap dealers set prices to avoid inventory imbalances. Low-rated banks find it attractive to turn to the FX swap market to cover their U.S. dollar funding, while swap dealers elicit opposite (arbitrage) flows by high-rated banks. Such arbitrage opportunities are difficult to scale, with funding rates adjusting as soon as arbitrageurs increase their positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Schrimpf, Paul & Rime, Dagfinn & Syrstad, Olav, 2019. "Covered Interest Parity Arbitrage," CEPR Discussion Papers 13637, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13637
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ferrara, Gerardo & Mueller, Philippe & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh & Wang, Junxuan, 2022. "Central bank swap lines: micro-level evidence," Bank of England working papers 977, Bank of England.
    3. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Chase P. Ross & Sharon Y. Ross & Kaushik Vasudevan, 2024. "Quantities and Covered-Interest Parity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2024. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2077-2114, June.
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    6. Piotr Kotlarz & Michael Hanke & Sebastian Stöckl, 2023. "Regime-dependent drivers of the EUR/CHF exchange rate," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Stock market and deviations from covered interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2021. "Inflation differential as a driver of cross-currency basis swap spreads," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 510-536, April.
    9. Syrstad, Olav & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2022. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 119-142.
    10. Pēteris Kloks & Patrick McGuire & Angelo Ranaldo & Vladyslav Sushko, 2023. "Bank positions in FX swaps: insights from CLS," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    11. Olav Syrstad, 2020. "Covered Interest Parity in long-dated securities," Working Paper 2020/11, Norges Bank.
    12. Graziano, Marco & Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2024. "Mutual funds and safe government bonds: do returns matter?," Working Paper Series 2931, European Central Bank.
    13. Fang, Xiang & Liu, Yang, 2021. "Volatility, intermediaries, and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 217-233.
    14. Christian Julliard & Gabor Pinter & Karamfil Todorov & Kathy Yuan, 2022. "What drives repo haircuts? Evidence from the UK market," BIS Working Papers 1027, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Dupuy, Philippe & James, Jessica & Marsh, Ian W., 2021. "Attractive and non-attractive currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Bazán, Walter & Ortiz, Marco & Terrones, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "CIP deviations: The role of U.S. banks’ liquidity and regulations," MPRA Paper 118600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2019. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and currency momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 91-108.
    18. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2024. "The price discovery in the renminbi/USD market: Two spot, two swap, and three forward FX rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    19. Reitz, Stefan & Umlandt, Dennis, 2021. "Currency returns and FX dealer balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Han, Bo, 2022. "Currency denomination and borrowing cost: Evidence from global bonds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    22. David-Pur, Lior & Galil, Koresh & Rosenboim, Mosi & Shapir, Offer Moshe, 2023. "Cross-currency basis swap spreads and corporate dollar funding," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covered interest parity; U.s. dollar funding; Funding liquidity premia; Fx swap market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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