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International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond

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  • Ciccone, Antonio
Abstract
A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast with those of Bazzi and Blattman, who argue that the new dataset rejects that commodity price downturns cause civil wars. The reason is that I calculate commodity price shocks using time invariant (fixed) export shares as commodity weights. Bazzi and Blattman also calculate commodity price shocks using export shares as commodity weights but the exports shares they use are time varying. Using time-invariant export shares as commodity weights ensures that time variation in price shocks solely reflects changes in international commodity prices. Price shocks based on time varying export shares partly reflect (possibly endogenous) changes in the quantity and variety of countries' exports, which jeopardizes causal estimation. I also show that setting time-invariant export shares equal to average export shares over the sample period, can be a way of dealing with attenuation bias due to mismeasured export shares. When I differentiate between agricultural commodities on the one hand and minerals, oil, and gas on the other, I find stronger increases in the risk of civil war outbreak following downturns in agricultural commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciccone, Antonio, 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 12625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12625
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    Cited by:

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    2. Anouk S. Rigterink, 2020. "Diamonds, Rebel’s and Farmer’s Best Friend: Impact of Variation in the Price of a Lootable, Labor-intensive Natural Resource on the Intensity of Violent Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 90-126, January.
    3. Nicholas Ngepah & Margarida Liandra Andrade da Silva & Charles Shaaba Saba, 2022. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks on Banking System Stability in Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Oliver Morrissey & Lionel Roger & Lars Spreng, 2019. "Aid and exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa: No more Dutch Disease?," Discussion Papers 2019-07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    5. Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh, 2022. "The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2440-2467.
    6. Raul Caruso & Jon Echevarria-Coco, 2023. "International prices and continuing conflict: Theory and evidence from sub-Saharan Africa (1980–2017)," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(6), pages 889-905, November.
    7. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    8. Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Gorlach, 2019. "Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya," Working Papers 1904, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Ricardo Maertens, 2021. "Adverse Rainfall Shocks and Civil War: Myth or Reality?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(4), pages 701-728, April.
    11. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Heesun Yoo, 2022. "Does “green gold” breed bloody violence? The effect of export shocks on criminal violence in Mexico," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1048-1060, September.
    13. Mr. Markus Eberhardt & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2018. "Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/153, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Civil wars; Commodity price downturns;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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