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Shrinking the Cross Section

Author

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  • Nagel, Stefan
  • Santosh, Shrihari
  • Kozak, Serhiy
Abstract
We construct a robust stochastic discount factor (SDF) that summarizes the joint explanatory power of a large number of cross-sectional stock return predictors. Our method achieves robust out-of-sample performance in this high-dimensional setting by imposing an economically motivated prior on SDF coefficients that shrinks the contributions of low-variance principal components of the candidate factors. While empirical asset pricing research has focused on SDFs with a small number of characteristics-based factors—e.g., the four- or five-factor models discussed in the recent literature—we find that such a characteristics-sparse SDF cannot adequately summarize the cross-section of expected stock returns. However, a relatively small number of principal components of the universe of potential characteristics-based factors can approximate the SDF quite well.

Suggested Citation

  • Nagel, Stefan & Santosh, Shrihari & Kozak, Serhiy, 2017. "Shrinking the Cross Section," CEPR Discussion Papers 12463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12463
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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