[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/11952.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pulling up the Tarnished Anchor: The End of Silver as a Global Unit of Account

Author

Listed:
  • Mitchener, Kris
  • Weidenmier, Marc
  • Fernholz, Ricardo
Abstract
We use the demise of silver-based standards in the 19th century to explore price dynamics when a commodity-based money ceases to function as a global unit of account. We develop a general equilibrium model of the global economy with gold and silver money. Calibration of the model shows that silver ceased functioning as a global price anchor in the mid-1890s—the price of silver is positively correlated with agricultural commodities through the mid-1890s, but not thereafter. In contrast to Fisher (1911) and Friedman (1990), both of whom predict greater price stability under bimetallism, our model suggests that a global bimetallic system in which the gold price of silver fluctuates has higher price volatility than a global monometallic system. We confirm this result using agricultural commodity price data for 1870-1913.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitchener, Kris & Weidenmier, Marc & Fernholz, Ricardo, 2017. "Pulling up the Tarnished Anchor: The End of Silver as a Global Unit of Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 11952, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11952
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP11952
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-Market, Trade Costs, and International Relative Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1998-2031, December.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2003. "A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity Exporters: Peg the Export Price (‘PEP’)," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 61-88, March.
    4. Matthias Morys, 2007. "The emergence of the Classical Gold Standard," Working Papers 7010, Economic History Society.
    5. Flandreau, Marc, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870–1880," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 862-897, December.
    6. Francois R. Velde & Warren E. Weber, 2000. "A Model of Bimetallism," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1210-1234, December.
    7. Oppers, Stefan Erik, 1996. "Was the worldwide shift to gold inevitable? An analysis of the end of bimetallism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 143-162, February.
    8. Hugh Rockoff, 1984. "Some Evidence on the Real Price of Gold, Its Costs of Production, and Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 613-650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2009. "Identifying the effects of an exchange rate depreciation on country risk: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1022-1044, October.
    10. Frieden, Jeffry A., 1997. "Monetary Populism in Nineteenth-Century America: An Open Economy Interpretation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 367-395, June.
    11. Rockoff, Hugh, 1990. "The "Wizard of Oz" as a Monetary Allegory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 739-760, August.
    12. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "Money and the Price Level under the Gold Standard," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(353), pages 13-33, March.
    13. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Meil, 1983. "A model of commodity money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 163-187.
    14. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    15. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October.
    16. KrisJames Mitchener & Marc Weidenmier, 2008. "Trade and Empire," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1805-1834, November.
    17. K. Sato, 1967. "A Two-Level Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution Production Function," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 34(2), pages 201-218.
    18. Kris James Mitchener & Marc Weidenmier, 2008. "Trade and Empire," NBER Working Papers 13765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Friedman, Milton, 1990. "Bimetallism Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
    20. Francois R. Velde, 2002. "The crime of 1873: back to the scene," Working Paper Series WP-02-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    21. Alexander D. Noyes, 1905. "The Recent Economic History of the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 19(2), pages 167-209.
    22. Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Money and Asset Prices in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 919-944, October.
    23. Marc Flandreau, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870-1880," Post-Print hal-03416271, HAL.
    24. Marc Flandreau, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870-1880," Post-Print hal-03416270, HAL.
    25. Meissner, Christopher M., 2005. "A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 385-406, July.
    26. Flandreau, Marc, 2004. "The Glitter of Gold: France, Bimetallism, and the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1848-1873," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257867.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Debin & Zhao, Liuyan, 2020. "A silver transformation: Chinese monetary integration in times of political disintegration, 1898–1933," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104056, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Ma, Debin & Zhao, Liuyan, 2019. "A Silver Transformation: Chinese Monetary Integration in Times of Political Disintegration during 1898-1933," CEPR Discussion Papers 13501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Debin Ma & Liuyan Zhao, 2020. "A silver transformation: Chinese monetary integration in times of political disintegration, 1898–1933," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 513-539, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Andre Varella Mollick, 2016. "Adoption of the Gold Standard and Real Exchange Rates in the Core and Periphery, 1870–1913," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 89-107, April.
    3. Roldan Alba, 2022. "The Golden Fetters in the Mediterranean Periphery. How Spain and Italy Overcame Business Cycles Between 1870 and 1913?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 170-193, January.
    4. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2020. "Pegxit pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    5. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234, Elsevier.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & William Roberds, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: An Old Tale with a New Chapter," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2022-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Francois R. Velde & Warren E. Weber, 2000. "A Model of Bimetallism," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1210-1234, December.
    8. Newby, Elisa, 2012. "The suspension of the gold standard as sustainable monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1498-1519.
    9. Meissner, Christopher M. & Oomes, Nienke, 2009. "Why do countries peg the way they peg? The determinants of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 522-547, April.
    10. Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
    11. Christopher M. Meissner, 2015. "The Limits of Bimetallism," NBER Working Papers 20852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Joseph H. Davis & Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2009. "Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1675-1727.
    13. Pamfili Antipa & Vincent Bignon, 2018. "Whither Economic History? Between Narratives and Quantification," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 17-36.
    14. Rita Martins de Sousa, 2019. "Portugal adoption of the gold standard: political reasons for a monetary choice (1846-1854)," Working Papers GHES - Office of Economic and Social History 2019/64, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, GHES - Social and Economic History Research Unit, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade, 2012. "How the Gold Standard functioned in Portugal: an analysis of some macroeconomic aspects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 617-629, February.
    16. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Sanches, Daniel, 2023. "A model of the gold standard," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    17. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2006. "Currency Mismatches, Default Risk, and Exchange Rate Depreciation: Evidence from the End of Bimetallism," NBER Working Papers 12299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Karaman, K. Kıvanç & Pamuk, Şevket & Yıldırım-Karaman, Seçil, 2020. "Money and monetary stability in Europe, 1300–1914," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 279-300.
    19. William D. Craighead, 2010. "Across Time And Regimes: 212 Years Of The Us‐Uk Real Exchange Rate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 951-964, October.
    20. Marc Flandreau, Kim Oosterlinck, 2011. "Was the Emergence of the International Gold Standard Expected? Melodramatic Evidence from Indian Government Securities," IHEID Working Papers 01-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bimetallism; Classical gold standard; Silver; Unit of account; Fixed exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11952. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.