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How Robust Is the Result That the Cost of "Leaning Against the Wind" Exceeds the Benefit? Response to Adrian and Liang

Author

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  • Svensson, Lars E.O.
Abstract
The main result in Svensson (2017) and its previous versions is that, given current knowledge and empirical estimates, the cost of using monetary policy to “lean against the wind†for financial-stability purposes exceeds the benefit by a substantial margin. Adrian and Liang conduct a sensitivity analysis of this result, state that “the result that costs exceed benefits rely critically on assumptions about the change in unemployment in a recession or crisis, the crisis probability, and the elasticity of crisis probability with respect to the interest rate,†and provide alternative assumptions that they assert would overturn the result. This paper shows that Adrian and Liang’s alternative assumptions are hardly realistic: they exceed existing empirical estimates by more than 11, 13, and 40 standard errors. Adrian and Liang furthermore do not comment on the extensive sensitivity analysis already done in previous versions of Svensson (2017), which supports the robustness of my result.

Suggested Citation

  • Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "How Robust Is the Result That the Cost of "Leaning Against the Wind" Exceeds the Benefit? Response to Adrian and Liang," CEPR Discussion Papers 11744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11744
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola & Volker Ziemann, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1003, OECD Publishing.
    2. Ørjan Robstad, 2014. "House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: Evidence from Structural VAR Models," Working Paper 2014/05, Norges Bank.
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    7. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J Lansing & Gisle James Natvik, 2018. "Leaning Against the Credit Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1350-1393.
    8. Andrew Filardo & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2016. "A quantitative case for leaning against the wind," BIS Working Papers 594, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Gregory H. Bauer & Eleonora Granziera, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Private Debt, and Financial Stability Risks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 337-373, September.
    10. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and "Leaning Against the Wind"," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 13(1), pages 91-99.
    11. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    12. Mr. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2016. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind: Are Costs Larger Also with Less Effective Macroprudential Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2016/003, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/35ph3mv7tn80ur0ii4gg6m5tir is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Xavier Ragot, 2017. "Financial stability and the ECB," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03457571, HAL.
    3. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission and trade-offs in the United States: Old and new," BIS Working Papers 649, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Irina Kozlovtceva & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Stas Tatarintsev, 2019. "Financial Stability Implications of Policy Mix in a Small Open Commodity-Exporting Economy," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps42, Bank of Russia.
    5. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35ph3mv7tn80ur0ii4gg6m5tir is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Xavier Ragot, 2017. "Financial stability and the ECB," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35ph3mv7tn8, Sciences Po.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Financial stability; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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