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The Long-Term Impacts of International Migration: Evidence from a Lottery

Author

Listed:
  • Gibson, John C
  • Stillman, Steven
  • McKenzie, David
  • Rohorua, Halahingano
Abstract
We examine the long-term impacts of international migration by comparing immigrants who had successful ballot entries in a migration lottery program, and first moved almost a decade ago, with people who had unsuccessful entries into those same ballots. The long-term gain in income is found to be similar in magnitude to the gain in the first year, despite migrants upgrading their education and changing their locations and occupations. This results in large sustained benefits to their immediate family, who have substantially higher consumption, durable asset ownership, savings, and dietary diversity. In contrast we find no measureable impact on extended family.

Suggested Citation

  • Gibson, John C & Stillman, Steven & McKenzie, David & Rohorua, Halahingano, 2015. "The Long-Term Impacts of International Migration: Evidence from a Lottery," CEPR Discussion Papers 10935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10935
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pissarides,, 2009. "Labour Market Adjustment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521106061, September.
    2. John Gibson & David McKenzie & Steven Stillman, 2011. "The Impacts of International Migration on Remaining Household Members: Omnibus Results from a Migration Lottery Program," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1297-1318, November.
    3. John Gibson & David McKenzie, 2014. "The Development Impact of a Best Practice Seasonal Worker Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 229-243, May.
    4. Stillman, Steven & Gibson, John & McKenzie, David & Rohorua, Halahingano, 2015. "Miserable Migrants? Natural Experiment Evidence on International Migration and Objective and Subjective Well-Being," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 79-93.
    5. Martin Ravallion & Michael Lokshin, 2001. "Identifying Welfare Effects from Subjective Questions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 335-357, August.
    6. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    7. John Gibson & David McKenzie, 2014. "Development through seasonal worker programs: the case of New Zealand’s RSE program," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 7, pages 186-210, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. John Gibson & David McKenzie, 2012. "The Economic Consequences of ‘Brain Drain’ of the Best and Brightest: Microeconomic Evidence from Five Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(560), pages 339-375, May.
    9. David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2010. "How Important Is Selection? Experimental vs. Non-Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 913-945, June.
    10. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2013. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 116-127.
    11. Michael A. Clemens & Lant Pritchett, 2008. "Income per Natural: Measuring Development for People Rather Than Places," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 395-434, September.
    12. Stillman, Steven & McKenzie, David & Gibson, John, 2009. "Migration and mental health: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 677-687, May.
    13. David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Moving to opportunity, leaving behind what? Evaluating the initial effects of a migration policy on incomes and poverty in source areas," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 197-223.
    14. Atila Abdulkadiroğlu & Joshua D. Angrist & Susan M. Dynarski & Thomas J. Kane & Parag A. Pathak, 2011. "Accountability and Flexibility in Public Schools: Evidence from Boston's Charters And Pilots," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 699-748.
    15. John Gibson & David McKenzie & Steven Stillman, 2013. "Accounting for Selectivity and Duration-Dependent Heterogeneity When Estimating the Impact of Emigration on Incomes and Poverty in Sending Areas," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 247-280.
    16. repec:ecj:econjl:v:122:y:2012:i::p:339-375 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Michael Clemens, 2010. "The Roots of Global Wage Gaps: Evidence from Randomized Processing of U.S. Visas," Working Papers 212, Center for Global Development.
    18. Michael A. Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 83-106, Summer.
    19. Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), 2014. "International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15465.
    20. repec:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:271:p:335-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ilana Redstone Akresh, 2008. "Occupational Trajectories of Legal US Immigrants: Downgrading and Recovery," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 435-456, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Immigration as social mobility
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2016-09-19 17:49:08

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David & Rohorua, Halahingano & Stillman, Steven, 2020. "Reprint of: The long-term impact of international migration on economic decision-making: Evidence from a migration lottery and lab-in-the-field experiments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Gröger, André, 2021. "Easy come, easy go? Economic shocks, labor migration and the family left behind," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Lutz Hendricks & Todd Schoellman, 2018. "Human Capital and Development Accounting: New Evidence from Wage Gains at Migration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 665-700.
    5. Sinem H. Ayhan & Kseniia Gatskova & Hartmut Lehmann, 2017. "The impact of non-cognitive skills and risk preferences on rural-to-urban migration: Evidence from Ukraine," Working Papers 369, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    6. Toman Barsbai & Vojtěch Bartoš & Victoria Licuanan & Andreas Steinmayr & Erwin Tiongson & Dean Yang, 2022. "Picture This: Social Distance and the Mistreatment of Migrant Workers," Working Papers 2022-17, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    7. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    8. Christie Smith & Christoph Thoenissen, 2018. "Migration and Business Cycle Dynamics," Working Papers 2018006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    9. Cuadros-Meñaca, Andres, 2020. "Remittances, health insurance, and pension contributions: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Brian Bell & Philip Johnson, 2024. "Immigrant downgrading: New evidence from UK panel data," CEP Discussion Papers dp2032, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Richard Curtain & Ryan B Edwards & Massimiliano Tani & Glenn Withers, 2022. "It is Time for a New Regional Compact!," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(2), pages 281-289, June.
    12. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David & Rohorua, Halahingano & Stillman, Steven, 2019. "The long-term impact of international migration on economic decision-making: Evidence from a migration lottery and lab-in-the-field experiments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 99-115.
    13. Paolo Martellini & Todd Schoellman & Jason Sockin, 2024. "The Global Distribution of College Graduate Quality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 434-483.
    14. Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2019. "Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Assimilation; Household well-being; International migration; Natural experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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