[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/10880.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Virtuous Circles and the Case for Aid

Author

Listed:
  • Temple, Jonathan
  • Carter, Patrick
Abstract
It is sometimes argued that foreign aid leads to a virtuous circle in which growth becomes self-reinforcing. We study two versions of this argument, using a modified neoclassical growth model in which the effects of parameter changes and capital accumulation are amplified. Simulations are used to quantify the welfare benefits from aid transfers. We find that, contrary to expectations, amplification makes only a modest difference to the welfare benefits from aid. This is true even when aid allows a faster exit from a vicious circle or poverty trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Temple, Jonathan & Carter, Patrick, 2015. "Virtuous Circles and the Case for Aid," CEPR Discussion Papers 10880, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10880
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP10880
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ananth Seshadri, 2014. "Human Capital and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2736-2762, September.
    2. Andrés Erosa & Tatyana Koreshkova & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "How Important Is Human Capital? A Quantitative Theory Assessment of World Income Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1421-1449.
    3. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    4. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-347, March.
    5. Alex Mourmouras & Peter Rangazas, 2007. "Foreign Aid Policy and Sources of Poverty: A Quantitative Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 59-90, May.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/22vv42pfks8jbb5qstg53r5mfl is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Aart Kraay & David McKenzie, 2014. "Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 127-148, Summer.
    8. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80.
    9. Jie Bai & Seema Jayachandran, 2013. "Does Economic Growth Reduce Corruption? Theory and Evidence from Vietnam," Working Papers id:5507, eSocialSciences.
    10. Ohanian, Lee & Raffo, Andrea & Rogerson, Richard, 2008. "Long-term changes in labor supply and taxes: Evidence from OECD countries, 1956-2004," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1353-1362, November.
    11. Charles I. Jones, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525.
    12. Ben-David, Dan, 1998. "Convergence clubs and subsistence economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 155-171, February.
    13. Turnovsky,Stephen J., 2011. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521187527, September.
    14. Trimborn, Timo & Koch, Karl-Josef & Steger, Thomas M., 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 301-319, June.
    15. Thomas F. Crossley & Hamish W. Low, 2011. "Is The Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution Constant?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 87-105, February.
    16. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    17. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    18. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-931, September.
    19. Krueger, Anne O, 1993. "Virtuous and Vicious Circles in Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 351-355, May.
    20. Ben R. Craig & William E. Jackson & James B. Thomson, 2004. "On SBA-guaranteed lending and economic growth," Working Papers (Old Series) 0403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    21. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 715-741.
    22. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & David A. Green, 2005. "Changes in the World Distribution of Output Per Worker, 1960-1998: How a Standard Decomposition Tells an Unorthodox Story," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 741-753, November.
    23. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    24. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    25. Benhabib, Jess & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1991. "Externalities and Growth Accounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 82-113, March.
    26. Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 6.
    27. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    28. Attanasio, Orazio P & Browning, Martin, 1995. "Consumption over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1118-1137, December.
    29. William Easterly, 2006. "Reliving the 1950s: the big push, poverty traps, and takeoffs in economic development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 289-318, December.
    30. Carter, Patrick, 2017. "Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-232.
    31. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages 191-216, June.
    32. Bliss, Christopher, 2007. "Trade, Growth, and Inequality," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199204649.
    33. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    34. Brautigam, Deborah A & Knack, Stephen, 2004. "Foreign Aid, Institutions, and Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 255-285, January.
    35. Carter, Patrick, 2014. "Aid allocation rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 132-151.
    36. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    37. Miguel-Angel Martín & Agustín Herranz, 2004. "Human capital and economic growth in Spanish regions," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 10(4), pages 257-264, November.
    38. Rebelo, Sergio, 1992. "Growth in open economies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 5-46, July.
    39. Bauer, Peter T, 1969. "Dissent on Development," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 75-94, February.
    40. Brakman,Steven & Marrewijk,Charles van, 2009. "The Economics of International Transfers," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521118729, September.
    41. Rappaport, Jordan, 2006. "A bottleneck capital model of development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2113-2129, November.
    42. Francois Bourguignon & Victoria Levin & David Rosenblatt, 2004. "Declining International Inequality and Economic Divergence: Reviewing the Evidence Through Different Lenses," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 100, pages 13-26.
    43. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2010. "Development Accounting," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 207-223, January.
    44. Guillermo E. Perry & Omar S. Arias & J. Humberto López & William F. Maloney & Luis Servén, 2006. "Poverty Reduction and Growth : Virtuous and Vicious Circles," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6997.
    45. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, September.
    46. Nabamita Dutta & Peter T. Leeson & Claudia R. Williamson, 2013. "The Amplification Effect: Foreign Aid's Impact on Political Institutions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 208-228, May.
    47. Maarten J. Voors & Èrwin H. Bulte & Richard Damania, 2011. "Income Shocks and Corruption in Africa: Does a Virtuous Cycle Exist?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(3), pages 395-418, June.
    48. Kraay, Aart & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Do poverty traps exist ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6835, The World Bank.
    49. Eaton, Jonathan, 1989. "Foreign public capital flows," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 25, pages 1305-1386, Elsevier.
    50. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3567, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    51. Chatterjee, Santanu & Sakoulis, Georgios & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Unilateral capital transfers, public investment, and economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1077-1103, December.
    52. Hollis Chenery† & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), 1989. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    53. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    54. Peter J. Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Maitreesh Ghatak, 2015. "Theories of Poverty Traps and Anti-Poverty Policies," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(suppl_1), pages 77-105.
    56. Jonas Dovern & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2007. "Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 359-383, August.
    57. Jan P. Pronk, 2001. "Aid as a Catalyst," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 611-629, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carter, Patrick, 2014. "Aid allocation rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 132-151.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/22vv42pfks8jbb5qstg53r5mfl is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    4. Jonathan Temple & Huikang Ying & Patrick Carter, 2014. "Transfers and Transformations: Remittances, Foreign Aid, and Growth," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 14/649, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 02 Dec 2014.
    5. Douch, Mustapha & Edwards, Huw & Landman, Todd & Mallick, Sushanta, 2022. "Aid effectiveness: Human rights as a conditionality measure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/22vv42pfks8jbb5qstg53r5mfl is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan Temple & Huikang Ying & Patrick Carter, 2014. "Transfers and Transformations: Remittances, Foreign Aid, and Growth," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 14/649, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 02 Dec 2014.
    2. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    3. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    4. Fabio Monteforte & Mathan Satchi & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2021. "Development priorities: the relative benefits of agricultural growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 1122-1152.
    5. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Jerry & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2019. "Economic growth in the long run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-35.
    6. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Eric A. Hanushek & Jens Ruhose & Ludger Woessmann, 2015. "Human Capital Quality and Aggregate Income Differences: Development Accounting for U.S. States," CESifo Working Paper Series 5411, CESifo.
    8. Eric A. Hanushek & Jens Ruhose & Ludger Woessmann, 2017. "Knowledge Capital and Aggregate Income Differences: Development Accounting for US States," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 184-224, October.
    9. Yao, Yao, 2019. "Does higher education expansion enhance productivity?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 169-194.
    10. Jerzmanowski, Michal & Tamura, Robert, 2019. "Directed technological change & cross-country income differences: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign aid - a fillip for development or a fuel for corruption?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 158, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. Caselli, Francesco & Ciccone, Antonio, 2013. "The contribution of schooling in development accounting: Results from a nonparametric upper bound," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 199-211.
    13. Yasir Khan & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "The Impact of Formal and Informal Institutions on Economic Performance: A Cross-Country Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:130, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    14. Meysonnat, Aline & Muysken, Joan & Zon, Adriaan van, 2015. "Poverty traps: the neglected role of vitality," MERIT Working Papers 2015-052, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    16. Carter, Patrick, 2014. "Aid allocation rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 132-151.
    17. Slichter, David & Taveras, Elisa & Monge, Daniela, 2021. "The Skills of Rich and Poor Country Workers," MPRA Paper 106050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Qian, Nancy & Lagakos, David & Moll, Benjamin & Porzio, Tommaso, 2012. "Experience Matters: Human Capital and Development Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Francisco Queiró, 2022. "Entrepreneurial Human Capital and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2061-2100.
    20. Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Ngoc-Sang & Pham, Thi Kim Cuong, 2023. "Effects of development aid (grants and loans) on the economic dynamics of the recipient country," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 101-112.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Amplification effects; Foreign aid; Vicious circles; Virtuous circles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10880. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.