[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/19090.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Great Reversal

Author

Listed:
  • Chrimes, Tommy
  • Gootjes, Bram
  • Kose, M. Ayhan
  • Wheeler, Collette
Abstract
The shock of the pandemic and subsequent overlapping crises has led to a reversal in development by exacerbating the challenges facing the most vulnerable 75 economies eligible for concessional loans and grants from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA). Over 2020-24, per capita incomes in half of IDA countries—the largest share since the start of this century—have been growing more slowly than those of wealthy economies. One out of three IDA countries is poorer than it was on the eve of the pandemic. Poverty remains stubbornly high, hunger has surged, and, amid fiscal constraints and rising investment needs, the development outlook could take an even bleaker turn—especially if weak growth prospects persist. IDA countries have several important demographic and resource advantages that could—if leveraged effectively—help close development gaps. Reaping the benefits of their advantages and meeting investment needs will require them to undertake comprehensive policy measures to bolster fiscal and monetary frameworks, enhance human capital development, and improve the quality of institutions. These policies should be complemented with significant and consistent international financial support as well as strong cooperation on global policy issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Chrimes, Tommy & Gootjes, Bram & Kose, M. Ayhan & Wheeler, Collette, 2024. "The Great Reversal," CEPR Discussion Papers 19090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19090
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP19090
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Era Dabla-Norris & Jim Brumby & Annette Kyobe & Zac Mills & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Investing in public investment: an index of public investment efficiency," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 235-266, September.
    5. Ceyhun Elgin & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2115, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. David L. McCollum & Wenji Zhou & Christoph Bertram & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Valentina Bosetti & Sebastian Busch & Jacques Després & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Marianne Fay & Oliver Fricko & Sh, 2018. "Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 589-599, July.
    7. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    8. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2019. "Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30657.
    9. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Fang, Xiangming & Kim, Young & Lledó, Victor & Mbaye, Samba & Zhang, Xiaoxiao, 2019. "Independent fiscal councils: Recent trends and performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 53-69.
    11. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    12. David L. McCollum & Wenji Zhou & Christoph Bertram & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Valentina Bosetti & Sebastian Busch & Jacques Després & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Marianne Fay & Oliver Fricko & Sh, 2018. "Author Correction: Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 699-699, August.
    13. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2022. "Building downstream capacity for critical minerals in Africa: Challenges and opportunities," Policy Briefs PB22-16, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    14. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2019. "Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1902, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Do fiscal rules need budget transparency to be effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Stephane Hallegatte & Julie Rozenberg, 2017. "Climate change through a poverty lens," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 250-256, April.
    17. World Bank, 2020. "The African Continental Free Trade Area," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34139.
    18. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    19. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Hoyos, Mateo & Libman, Emiliano & Razmi, Arslan, 2021. "The structural outcomes of investment surges," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 245-255.
    21. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2018. "Returns to investment in education: a decennial review of the global literature," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 445-458, September.
    22. Caselli, Francesca & Reynaud, Julien, 2020. "Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    23. Mawejje, Joseph & Sebudde, Rachel K., 2019. "Tax revenue potential and effort: Worldwide estimates using a new dataset," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 119-129.
    24. Waseem, Mazhar, 2018. "Taxes, informality and income shifting: Evidence from a recent Pakistani tax reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 41-77.
    25. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    26. Indermit S. Gill & Ivailo Izvorski & Willem van Eeghen & Donato De Rosa, 2014. "Diversified Development : Making the Most of Natural Resources in Eurasia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 17193.
    27. Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2002. "Economic Reforms in India Since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 67-88, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2024. "The medium-term effects of fiscal policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Rajag M. Nag & Johannes F. Linn & Harinder S. Kohli (ed.), 2016. "Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number centasia2050, Summer.
    3. Savina Gygli & Florian Haelg & Niklas Potrafke & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2019. "The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 543-574, September.
    4. Beck, Thorsten & Poelhekke, Steven, 2023. "Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Export diversification and financial openness," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 675-717, October.
    8. Ablam Estel APETI & Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Reforms : Fiscal Rules and Public Expenditure Efficiency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2985, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Naoko C. Kojo, 2015. "Demystifying Dutch Disease," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-23.
    10. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2018. "Oil Abundance and Income Inequality," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(4), pages 825-848, December.
    11. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2021. "Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2108, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    12. Han, Minsoo, 2022. "International financial integration and total factor productivity losses from underdeveloped domestic financial markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    13. Lai, Kevin & Wang, Tao & Xu, David, 2021. "Capital controls and international trade: An industry financial vulnerability perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    14. Eric Monnet & Mr. Damien Puy, 2019. "One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2019/202, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Fahim Al Marhubi, 2021. "Economic Complexity and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 49(3), pages 259-271, September.
    16. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16 [Focus on Future Viability. Annual Report 2015/16]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516, February.
    18. Rangvid, Jesper & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Schmeling, Maik, 2016. "Capital market integration and consumption risk sharing over the long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 27-43.
    19. Bechlioulis, Alexandros & Economidou, Claire & Karamanis, Dimitrios & Konstantios, Dimitrios, 2023. "How important are capital controls in shaping innovation activity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.