[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/18065.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing Productivity across U.S. States: What the Long-Run Data Show

Author

Listed:
  • Klein, Alexander
  • Crafts, Nicholas
Abstract
This paper examines long-run unconditional convergence of labour productivity in manufacturing across 48 contiguous U.S. states. For that purpose, we construct a detailed panel data set of state-industry pairs with over 120 industries covering the period 1880-2007. We find that unconditional β-convergence in manufacturing productivity was pervasive and rapid – 7.6% per year in 1880-2007 – and that manufacturing accounts for most of the unconditional convergence contribution to overall productivity growth over the long run: 61% in 1880-1940 and 91% in 1958-2007. We also examined broad U.S. regions and found that in the South the contribution of unconditional β-convergence in manufacturing to aggregate productivity growth before World War II was weak not because of a slower convergence rate but a much smaller manufacturing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Alexander & Crafts, Nicholas, 2023. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing Productivity across U.S. States: What the Long-Run Data Show," CEPR Discussion Papers 18065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP18065
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Frakes, 2013. "The Impact of Medical Liability Standards on Regional Variations in Physician Behavior: Evidence from the Adoption of National-Standard Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 257-276, February.
    2. Powell-Jackson, Timothy & Mazumdar, Sumit & Mills, Anne, 2015. "Financial incentives in health: New evidence from India's Janani Suraksha Yojana," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 154-169.
    3. Daniel P. Kessler & Mark McClellan, 1996. "Do Doctors Practice Defensive Medicine?," NBER Working Papers 5466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Manning, Willard G, et al, 1987. "Health Insurance and the Demand for Medical Care: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 251-277, June.
    5. Janet Currie & Jonathan Gruber, 1996. "Health Insurance Eligibility, Utilization of Medical Care, and Child Health," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 431-466.
    6. Fox, Justin & Stephenson, Matthew C., 2011. "Judicial Review as a Response to Political Posturing," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 397-414, May.
    7. Jonathan Gruber & Nathaniel Hendren & Robert M. Townsend, 2014. "The Great Equalizer: Health Care Access and Infant Mortality in Thailand," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 91-107, January.
    8. Edward L. Glaeser & Janet E. Kohlhase, 2004. "Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Raymond J. G. M. Florax & David A. Plane (ed.), Fifty Years of Regional Science, pages 197-228, Springer.
    9. Nicholas Crafts & Alexander Klein, 2021. "Spatial concentration of manufacturing industries in the United States: re-examination of long-run trends [The driving forces of service localization during the twentieth century: Evidence from the," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 25(2), pages 223-246.
    10. Martin Gaynor & James B. Rebitzer & Lowell J. Taylor, 2004. "Physician Incentives in Health Maintenance Organizations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 915-931, August.
    11. repec:idb:brikps:79464 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Martin Gaynor & Kate Ho & Robert J. Town, 2015. "The Industrial Organization of Health-Care Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(2), pages 235-284, June.
    13. Danzon, Patricia M., 2000. "Liability for medical malpractice," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1339-1404, Elsevier.
    14. Currie, Janet & Gruber, Jonathan & Fischer, Michael, 1995. "Physician Payments and Infant Mortality: Evidence from Medicaid Fee Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 106-111, May.
    15. Amy Finkelstein & Sarah Taubman & Bill Wright & Mira Bernstein & Jonathan Gruber & Joseph P. Newhouse & Heidi Allen & Katherine Baicker, 2012. "The Oregon Health Insurance Experiment: Evidence from the First Year," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1057-1106.
    16. Sarah Miller & Norman Johnson & Laura R Wherry, 2021. "Medicaid and Mortality: New Evidence From Linked Survey and Administrative Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1783-1829.
    17. Daniel Kessler & Mark McClellan, 1996. "Do Doctors Practice Defensive Medicine?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 353-390.
    18. Gerben Bakker & Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2019. "The Sources of Growth in a Technologically Progressive Economy: The United States, 1899–1941," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(622), pages 2267-2294.
    19. David M. Cutler & Dan P. Ly, 2011. "The (Paper)Work of Medicine: Understanding International Medical Costs," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 3-25, Spring.
    20. Antonio Giuffrida & Carmen Elisa Flórez & Úrsula Giedion & Enriqueta Cueto & Juan Gonzalo López & Amanda Glassman & Ramón A. Castaño & Diana M. Pinto & Renata Pardo & Teresa M. Tono & William D. Saved, 2009. "From Few to Many: Ten Years of Health Insurance Expansion in Colombia," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 79464 edited by Antonio Giuffrida & Úrsula Giedion & María Luisa Escobar & Amanda Glassman, February.
    21. Londono, Juan-Luis & Frenk, Julio, 1997. "Structured pluralism: towards an innovative model for health system reform in Latin America," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-36, July.
    22. David Card & Carlos Dobkin & Nicole Maestas, 2008. "The Impact of Nearly Universal Insurance Coverage on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Medicare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2242-2258, December.
    23. Connolly, Michelle, 2004. "Human Capital and Growth in the Postbellum South: A Separate but Unequal Story," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 363-399, June.
    24. Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Carolina Mejia, 2006. "Assessing Health Reform in Colombia: From Theory to Practice," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 29-72, August.
    25. Eric Maskin & Jean Tirole, 2004. "The Politician and the Judge: Accountability in Government," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
    26. Thomas J. Holmes, 1998. "The Effect of State Policies on the Location of Manufacturing: Evidence from State Borders," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 667-705, August.
    27. Finkelstein, Amy & McKnight, Robin, 2008. "What did Medicare do? The initial impact of Medicare on mortality and out of pocket medical spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 1644-1668, July.
    28. David Roodman & James G. MacKinnon & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Matthew D. Webb, 2019. "Fast and wild: Bootstrap inference in Stata using boottest," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(1), pages 4-60, March.
    29. Mark Duggan & Atul Gupta & Emilie Jackson & Zachary S. Templeton, 2023. "The Impact of Privatization: Evidence from the Hospital Sector," NBER Working Papers 30824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. James G. MacKinnon & Matthew D. Webb, 2017. "Wild Bootstrap Inference for Wildly Different Cluster Sizes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 233-254, March.
    31. Chi‐Young Choi & Xiaojun Wang, 2015. "Discontinuity Of Output Convergence Within The United States: Why Has The Course Changed?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 49-71, January.
    32. Kim, Sukkoo, 1998. "Economic Integration and Convergence: U.S. Regions, 1840–1987," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 659-683, September.
    33. Amy Finkelstein, 2007. "The Aggregate Effects of Health Insurance: Evidence from the Introduction of Medicare," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 1-37.
    34. Janet Currie & W. Bentley MacLeod, 2008. "First Do No Harm? Tort Reform and Birth Outcomes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 795-830.
    35. Kinnunen, Maarit & Wood, Emma H. & Li, Yanning & Moss, Jonathan, 2022. "Self-recorded conversations in tourism memory research," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    36. Alexander Klein & Nicholas Crafts, 2012. "Making sense of the manufacturing belt: determinants of U.S. industrial location, 1880--1920," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 775-807, July.
    37. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & Ákos Valentinyi, 2022. "New Evidence on Sectoral Labor Productivity: Implications for Industrialization and Development," NBER Working Papers 29834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Sonchak, Lyudmyla, 2015. "Medicaid reimbursement, prenatal care and infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 10-24.
    39. Alexander Klein & Nicholas Crafts, 2020. "Agglomeration externalities and productivity growth: US cities, 1880–1930," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(1), pages 209-232, February.
    40. Frakes, Michael & Jena, Anupam B., 2016. "Does medical malpractice law improve health care quality?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 142-158.
    41. Kessler, Daniel & McClellan, Mark, 2002. "Malpractice law and health care reform: optimal liability policy in an era of managed care," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 175-197, May.
    42. Abe Dunn & Joshua D Gottlieb & Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J Sonnenstuhl & Pietro Tebaldi, 2024. "A Denial a Day Keeps the Doctor Away," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(1), pages 187-233.
    43. Andrew Goodman-Bacon, 2018. "Public Insurance and Mortality: Evidence from Medicaid Implementation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 216-262.
    44. Barde, Sylvain & Klein, Alexander, 2021. "Transportation Costs in the Age of Highways: Evidence from United States 1955-2010," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 597, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    45. Currie, Janet & Gruber, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Babies: The Efficacy and Cost of Recent Changes in the Medicaid Eligibility of Pregnant Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1263-1296, December.
    46. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-549, August.
    47. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    48. Jac C. Heckelman, 2013. "Income convergence among U.S. states: crosssectional and time series evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1085-1109, August.
    49. Michael Kremer & Jack Willis & Yang You, 2022. "Converging to Convergence," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 337-412.
    50. Grant Miller & Diana Pinto & Marcos Vera-Hernández, 2013. "Risk Protection, Service Use, and Health Outcomes under Colombia's Health Insurance Program for the Poor," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 61-91, October.
    51. Dillender, Marcus, 2018. "What happens when the insurer can say no? Assessing prior authorization as a tool to prevent high-risk prescriptions and to lower costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 170-200.
    52. Abadia, Cesar Ernesto & Oviedo, Diana G., 2009. "Bureaucratic Itineraries in Colombia. A theoretical and methodological tool to assess managed-care health care systems," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1153-1160, March.
    53. Klein, Alexander, 2023. "From the Manufacturing Belt to the Rust Belt. Spatial Inequalities in the United States: An Interdisciplinary Literature Review," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 657, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    54. Alicia Ely Yamin & Oscar Parra-Vera, 2009. "How Do Courts Set Health Policy? The Case of the Colombian Constitutional Court," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(2), pages 1-4, February.
    55. Gauri, Varun, 2004. "Social Rights and Economics: Claims to Health Care and Education in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 465-477, March.
    56. Rati Ram, 2021. "Income convergence across the U.S. states: further evidence from new recent data," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 372-380, April.
    57. Dani Rodrik, 2013. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 165-204.
    58. Weathers, Robert R. & Stegman, Michelle, 2012. "The effect of expanding access to health insurance on the health and mortality of Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 863-875.
    59. Chou, Shin-Yi & Grossman, Michael & Liu, Jin-Tan, 2014. "The impact of National Health Insurance on birth outcomes: A natural experiment in Taiwan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 75-91.
    60. James Field, Alexander, 1985. "On the unimportance of machinery," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 378-401, October.
    61. Meyer, David R., 1989. "Midwestern Industrialization and the American Manufacturing Belt in the Nineteenth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 921-937, December.
    62. Abhijit Banerjee & Amy Finkelstein & Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken & Arianna Ornaghi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2021. "The Challenges of Universal Health Insurance in Developing Countries: Experimental Evidence from Indonesia's National Health Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 3035-3063, September.
    63. Adriana Camacho & Emily Conover, 2013. "Effects of Subsidized Health Insurance on Newborn Health in a Developing Country," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 633-658.
    64. Liran Einav & Jonathan Levin, 2015. "Managed Competition In Health Insurance," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 998-1021, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bryan Hardy & Can Sever, 2023. "Innovation convergence," BIS Working Papers 1108, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhalotra, Sonia & Fernandez, Manuel, 2021. "The Right to Health and the Health Effects of Denials," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1376, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Lin, Lin & Zai, Xianhua, 2022. "The Power of Public Insurance With Limited Benefits: Evidence from China's New Cooperative Medical Scheme," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1180, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. repec:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-025 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kondo, Ayako & Shigeoka, Hitoshi, 2013. "Effects of universal health insurance on health care utilization, and supply-side responses: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-23.
    5. Charles Courtemanche & James Marton & Benjamin Ukert & Aaron Yelowitz & Daniela Zapata, 2018. "Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access, Risky Health Behaviors, and Self‐Assessed Health," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 660-691, January.
    6. Raj Chetty & Amy Finkelstein, 2012. "Social Insurance: Connecting Theory to Data," NBER Working Papers 18433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paola Bertoli & Veronica Grembi, 2018. "Medical Malpractice: How Legal Liability Affects Medical Decisions," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Health Econometrics, volume 127, pages 235-261, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. Liu, Gordon & Yi, Junjian & Yuan, Ye & Zhao, Shaoyang, 2023. "The short- and long-run effects of medical malpractice lawsuits on medical spending and hospital operations in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1142-1161.
    9. Borgschulte, Mark & Vogler, Jacob, 2020. "Did the ACA Medicaid expansion save lives?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Dominic Coey, 2015. "The Effect of Medicaid on Health Care Consumption of Young Adults," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 558-565, May.
    11. Gabriella Conti & Rita Ginja, 2023. "Who Benefits from Free Health Insurance?: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(1), pages 146-182.
    12. Barbaresco, Silvia & Courtemanche, Charles J. & Qi, Yanling, 2015. "Impacts of the Affordable Care Act dependent coverage provision on health-related outcomes of young adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 54-68.
    13. Zabinski, Zenon & Black, Bernard S., 2022. "The deterrent effect of tort law: Evidence from medical malpractice reform," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Supon Limwattananon & Sven Neelsen & Owen O'Donnell & Phusit Prakongsai & Viroj Tangcharoensathien & Eddy van Doorslaer & Vuthiphan Vongmongkol, 2013. "Universal Coverage on a Budget: Impacts on Health Care Utilization and Out-Of-Pocket Expenditures in Thailand," CESifo Working Paper Series 4262, CESifo.
    15. Sarah Miller & Norman Johnson & Laura R Wherry, 2021. "Medicaid and Mortality: New Evidence From Linked Survey and Administrative Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1783-1829.
    16. Lingguo Cheng & Hong Liu & Ye Zhang & Ke Shen & Yi Zeng, 2015. "The Impact of Health Insurance on Health Outcomes and Spending of the Elderly: Evidence from China's New Cooperative Medical Scheme," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 672-691, June.
    17. Klein, Alexander, 2023. "From the Manufacturing Belt to the Rust Belt. Spatial Inequalities in the United States: An Interdisciplinary Literature Review," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 657, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    18. O'Donnell, Owen, 2024. "Health and health system effects on poverty: A narrative review of global evidence," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    19. Andersen, Martin S., 2018. "Effects of Medicare coverage for the chronically ill on health insurance, utilization, and mortality: Evidence from coverage expansions affecting people with end-stage renal disease," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 75-89.
    20. Panthöfer, Sebastian, 2016. "Tort Reform and the Length of Physician Office Visits," UC3M Working papers. Economics 23861, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    21. Sonia Bhalotra & Rudi Rocha & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2020. "Can Universalization of Health Work? Evidence from Health Systems Restructuring and Expansion in Brazil," Working Papers 03, Instituto de Estudos para Políticas de Saúde.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.