[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/17514.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Burst of High Inflation in 2021-22: How and Why Did We Get Here?

Author

Listed:
  • Reis, Ricardo
Abstract
The current institutional arrangements for monetary policy delivered more than two decades of low and stable inflation. Yet, central banks failed to prevent a burst of high inflation in 2021-22. This paper inspects four tentative hypotheses for why this happened. The first is a misdiagnosis of the nature of shocks during a time of great uncertainty leading to an overly long period of expansionary policy. The second is a neglect of expectations data driven by a strong belief that inflation expectations were firmly anchored and so inflation increases would be temporary. The third is an over-reliance on the credibility earned in the past, creating an illusion of too much room to focus on the recovery of real activity and underpredicting the resulting inflation. The fourth is a revision of strategy that made central banks tolerant of higher inflation because of the trend fall in the return on government bonds, even though the return on private capital stayed high.

Suggested Citation

  • Reis, Ricardo, 2022. "The Burst of High Inflation in 2021-22: How and Why Did We Get Here?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17514, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP17514
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aidala, Felix & Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Somerville, Jason & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2024. "Gasoline price changes and consumer inflation expectations: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 66-80.
    2. Goodhart, Charles A.E. & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. & Wang, Xuan, 2023. "Bank credit, inflation, and default risks over an infinite horizon," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. B. De Backer & A. Stevens & J. Wauters & H. Zimmer, 2023. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, pages 1-38, October.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Max Sina Knicker & Karl Naumann-Woleske & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Francesco Zamponi, 2023. "Post-COVID Inflation & the Monetary Policy Dilemma: An Agent-Based Scenario Analysis," Papers 2306.01284, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    6. Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Naoya Kishi, 2024. "Changes in the Global Economic Landscape and Issues for Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-3, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price level; Central bank independence; R-star; Dove; Hawk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.