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New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments

Author

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  • Söderlind, Paul
  • Svensson, Lars E O
Abstract
This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interest rates, so as to extract expected future time-paths. Very recently, methods have been designed to extract not only the means, but also the whole (risk neutral) probability distribution from a set of option prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," CEPR Discussion Papers 1556, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1556
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; Forward Rate Curve; Inflation; Interest Rates; Options; Risk Neutral Distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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