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Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"

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  • Mueller, Hannes
  • Garcia-Uribe, Sandra
  • Sanz, Carlos
Abstract
This article exploits two newspaper archives to track economic policy uncertainty in Spain in 1905-1945, a period of extreme political polarization. We find that the outbreak of the civil war in 1936 was anticipated by a striking upward level shift of uncertainty in both newspapers. We study the dynamics behind this shift and provide evidence of a strong empirical link between increasing uncertainty and the rise of divisive political issues at the time: socio-economic conflict, regional separatism, power of the military, and role of the church. This holds even when we exploit variation in content at the newspaper level.

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  • Mueller, Hannes & Garcia-Uribe, Sandra & Sanz, Carlos, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"," CEPR Discussion Papers 15479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pau Insa-Sánchez & Alfonso Díez-Minguela, 2023. "Starting high school? On the origins of secondary education in Spain, 1857–1901," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(2), pages 233-259, May.
    2. Betrán, Concepción & Huberman, Michael, 2024. "Unintended consequences: International trade shocks and electoral outcomes during the Second Spanish Republic, 1931–1936," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

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