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The Race between Population and Technology: Real wages in the First Industrial Revolution

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  • Crafts, Nicholas
  • Mills, Terence
Abstract
We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4 per cent before 1760 but 1.5 per cent thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Industrial revolution the impact on real wages would have been catastrophic and that these shocks were largely responsible for very slow growth of real wages during the Industrial Revolution.

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  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence, 2020. "The Race between Population and Technology: Real wages in the First Industrial Revolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 15174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15174
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara Horrell & Jane Humphries & Jacob Weisdorf, 2022. "Beyond the male breadwinner: Life‐cycle living standards of intact and disrupted English working families, 1260–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(2), pages 530-560, May.
    2. Romola J. Davenport, 2021. "Nineteenth‐century mortality trends: a reply to Szreter and Mooney," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1096-1110, November.
    3. Hans-Joachim Voth & Bruno Caprettini & Alex Trew, 2022. "Fighting for Growth: Labor scarcity and technological progress during the British industrial revolution," Working Papers 2022_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Peter Grajzl & Peter Murrell, 2023. "Of families and inheritance: law and development in England before the Industrial Revolution," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(3), pages 387-432, September.
    5. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "Understanding productivity growth in the industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 309-338, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemic disease; Industrial revolution; Malthusian checks; Nuptiality; Population growth; Real wages; Technological progress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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