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Worker heterogeneity, selection, and employment dynamics in the face of aggregate demand and pandemic shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Ravenna, Federico
  • Walsh, Carl
Abstract
In a new Keynesian model with random search in the labor market, endogenous selection among heterogeneous workers amplifies fluctuations in unemployment and results in excess unemployment volatility relative to the efficient allocation. Recessions disproportionately affect low-productivity workers, whose unemployment spells are inefficiently frequent and long. We consider a COVID-recession resulting from a negative demand shock and a surge in exogenous separations. High-productivity workers benefit if separations in a pandemic take the form of temporary layoffs, but this is not true for low-productivity workers. The unemployment consequences are especially severe when nominal interest rates are close to the effective lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl, 2020. "Worker heterogeneity, selection, and employment dynamics in the face of aggregate demand and pandemic shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 15043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Heterogeneity; Selection; Covid-19; Zlb constraint;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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