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Hysteresis from Employer Subsidies

Author

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  • Seim, David
  • Saez, Emmanuel
  • Schoefer, Benjamin
Abstract
This paper uses administrative data to analyze a large and 8-year long employer payroll tax rate cut in Sweden for young workers aged 26 or less. First, we document that while active, the reform raised youth employment among the treated workers. The long-run effects are twice as large as the medium-run effects and likely driven by labor demand (as workers’ take-home wages did not respond). Second, we document novel labor-demand-driven “hysteresis†from this policy – i.e. persistent employment effects even after the subsidy no longer applies – along two dimensions. Over the lifecycle, employment effects persist even after workers age out of eligibility. Two years after the repeal, employment remains elevated at the maximal reform level in the formerly subsidized ages. These hysteresis effects triple the direct employment effects of the reform. Discrimination against young workers in job posting fell during the reform and does not bounce back after repeal, potentially explaining our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Seim, David & Saez, Emmanuel & Schoefer, Benjamin, 2019. "Hysteresis from Employer Subsidies," CEPR Discussion Papers 14052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14052
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    7. Amina Ebrahim & Jukka Pirttilä, 2022. "A policy for the jobless youth in South Africa: Individual impacts of the Employment Tax Incentive," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    9. Kim, Jinyoung & Kwak, Eunhye, 2023. "Long-Term Effects of Recession on Parenthood Gender Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 16055, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Albanese, Andrea & Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2024. "Long-term effects of hiring subsidies for low-educated unemployed youths," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing

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