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Uncertainty and the export decisions of Dutch firms

Author

Listed:
  • Arjan Lejour

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • harold creusen
Abstract
This paper analyses the export market entry decisions of Dutch firms and their subsequent growth or market exit. When entering new markets, firms have to learn market conditions and have to search for new trade relations under uncertainty. We show that firms follow a stepping stone approach for reaching markets further away (physically and culturally) by including the distance to accessed export markets in our analysis. They first enter more nearby markets before moving to more distant markets. Moreover, we find that the presence of support offices and trade missions in destination countries, particularly middle income countries, stimulate the entry of new exporters and export growth. Knowledge spillovers from firms with the same export destinations have also positive effects on market entry. These conclusions follow from using detailed international trade data by firm and destination between 2002 and 2008 combined with firm data and export market characteristics. We find that about 5% of all Dutch exporters have just started in their first market and a similar share of exporters ceases all exports. Still, the starting exporters increase their exports very fast. In each market their export growth in their third year as exporter is about twice as high as for established exporters. Many starters also increase their exports by expanding their number of destinations, but they will retreat swiftly if they are not successful. For all exporters, we find that more productive and larger firms are more inclined to enter (additional) export markets, and that larger firms are less likely to leave a market. Market characteristics are important as well. Distance to the home country (apart from distance to accessed export markets) and import tariffs reduce the probability to enter the market and increase the probability to exit. Read also: • Using Stepping Stones to Enter Distant Export Markets, Global Economy Journal 15(1), 2015, p 107-132 and • Market Entry and Economic Diplomacy, Applied Economic Letters 20(5), 2013, 504-507

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan Lejour & harold creusen, 2011. "Uncertainty and the export decisions of Dutch firms," CPB Discussion Paper 183, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lawless, Martina & Siedschlag, Iulia & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2017. "Expanding and diversifying the manufactured exports of Irish-owned enterprises," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT335.
    3. Joakim Gullstrand & Maria Persson, 2015. "How to combine high sunk costs of exporting and low export survival," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(1), pages 23-51, February.
    4. Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Córcoles, David & Gandoy, Rosario, 2014. "Exit from Exporting: Does Engagement in Transnational Networks Matter?," MPRA Paper 57642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. (ed.), 0. "Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16053.
    6. Bandick, Roger, 2020. "Global sourcing, firm size and export survival," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-29.
    7. Lili Wang & Yong Zhao, 2013. "Does Experience Facilitate Entry into New Export Destinations?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(5), pages 36-59, September.
    8. Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Córcoles, David & Gandoy, Rosario, 2015. "Exit from exporting: Does being a two-way trader matter?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-27.
    9. INUI Tomohiko & ITO Keiko & MIYAKAWA Daisuke & SHOJI Keishi, 2013. "Firms' Export Behavior and the Role of Bank' Overseas Information," ESRI Discussion paper series 297, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Marco Grazzi & Nanditha Mathew & Daniele Moschella, 2017. "Efficiency, innovation, and imported inputs: determinants of export performance among Indian manufacturing firms," LEM Papers Series 2017/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Haeng-Sun Kim, 2019. "Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Exporting Decision in Risk-averse and Risk-taking Firms," Working Papers hal-02128335, HAL.
    12. Bagir, Yusuf, 2017. "Impact of the Presence of Foreign Missions on Trade: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 80845, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Raoul van Maarseveen & Peter Zwaneveld, 2017. "Firm Heterogeneity and Exports in The Netherlands: Identifying Export Potential," CESifo Working Paper Series 6544, CESifo.
    14. Marco Grazzi & Nanditha Mathew & Daniele Moschella, 2021. "Making one’s own way: jumping ahead in the capability space and exporting among Indian firms," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 931-957, July.
    15. Peter Bergeijk & Fabienne Fortanier & Harry Garretsen & Henri Groot & Selwyn Moons, 2011. "Productivity and Internationalization: A Micro-Data Approach," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 381-388, December.
    16. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora* & Rosario Gandoy, 2016. "Complex Internationalization Strategies and Firm Export Dynamics: Crisis and Recovery," Working Papers 16-05 Classification-JEL , Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    17. Peter Zwaneveld & Raoul van Maarseveen & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen, 2018. "Firm heterogeneity and exports in the Netherlands: Identifying export potential," CPB Discussion Paper 369.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Peter Zwaneveld & Raoul van Maarseveen & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen, 2018. "Firm heterogeneity and exports in the Netherlands: Identifying export potential," CPB Discussion Paper 369, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Filippo Vergara Caffarelli & Giovanni Veronese, 2013. "Italy�s system for supporting internationalization," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 196, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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