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Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Babecky
  • Ales Bulir
  • Katerina Smidkova
Abstract
The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample of new EU member countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have a profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions may experience sustainable appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," Working Papers 2011/01, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2011/01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank.
    3. Sophocles Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2013. "Liquidity And The Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence From The Greek Banking Sector," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(199), pages 109-126, October -.
    4. Iršová, Zuzana & Havránek, Tomáš, 2013. "Determinants of Horizontal Spillovers from FDI: Evidence from a Large Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2015. "Main Economic Policies in order to Manage an Optimum Accession of Romania to the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 151-169, March.
    6. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201510131420 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201510131420 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Florina PINZARU & Mihaela DINU & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2014. "Fixing the Central Parity and the Evolution of the Currency within the Exchange Rate Mechanism II in the Countries that Joined the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 2(4), pages 21-40, April.
    9. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb11/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    14. Boero, Gianna & Mavromatis, Kostas & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real exchange rates and transition economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 23-35.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign direct investment; Great Recession; new EU member states; sustainable exchange rates.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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