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A Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions

Author

Listed:
  • Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova
  • Jan Babecky
  • Martin Raiser
Abstract
Since the beginning of market reforms in 1989, the countries of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have been trading significantly less with the world economy than those Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries which later joined the EU. To explain why this is the case, a number of hypotheses have been proposed in the literature. The key novelty of our study consists in a simultaneous assessment of the contribution to trade of geographical, policy and institutional factors during the EU pre-accession period (1997-–2004). An augmented gravity model is proposed and estimated for a reference group of 82 countries, employing the Poisson and Tobit estimation techniques. We find that low quality of economic institutions in the SEE and CIS countries accounted for a considerable proportion of their below-potential international trade. We perform policy simulations using institutional data up to 2008 to identify channels for increasing the international trade of the SEE and CIS countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Martin Raiser, 2010. "A Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Working Papers 2010/04, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2010/04
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    3. Ichiro Iwasaki & Keiko Suganuma, 2015. "The impact of FDI and socio-cultural similarity on international trade: Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation of a Russian trade model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1020-1033.
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    5. Koji Kubo, 2014. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: a gravity model analysis," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, June.
    6. Jan Hájek & Roman Horváth, 2016. "The Spillover Effect of Euro Area on Central and Southeastern European Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 359-385, April.
    7. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Suganuma, Keiko, 2013. "A Gravity Model of Russian Trade: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Socio-Cultural Similarity," RRC Working Paper Series 40, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Arief Bustaman & Rina Indiastuti & B. Budiono & Titik Anas, 2022. "Quality of Indonesia’s domestic institutions and export performance in the era of global value chains," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, December.
    9. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb09/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Lucie Davidova & Vladimir Benacek, 2014. "Determinants of Austrian International Trade: Analysis Based on the Gravity Model," Working Papers IES 2014/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2014.
    11. Jelena Trivic & £ukasz Klimczak, 2015. "The determinants of intra-regional trade in the Western Balkans," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 37-66.
    12. Aditya Rangga Yogatama & Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, 2015. "The Role of Democracy and Governance in the Enhancement of Indonesian Exports to the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries," Working Papers in Economics and Business 201504, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Jul 2015.
    13. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Martínez-Serrano, 2015. "The Uneven Impact of Continental Boundaries on Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 237-257, April.
    14. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Michal Paulus & Eva Michalikova & Vladimir Benacek, 2014. "German International Trade: Interpreting Export Flows According to the Gravity Model," Working Papers IES 2014/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2014.
    16. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb11/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Setyastuti, Rini & Adiningsih, Sri & Widodo, Tri, 2018. "The Role of Governance Quality in Increasing Intra-ASEAN Trade," MPRA Paper 85258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    20. Jusufi Gezim & Bellaqa Bashkim, 2019. "Trade Barriers and Exports between Western Balkan Countries," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 65(4), pages 72-80, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model of trade; Poisson estimator; Tobit estimator; transition economies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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