[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cnn/wpaper/18-003e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Economic Slowdown

Author

Listed:
  • Keiichiro Kobayashi
  • Daichi Shirai
Abstract
Economic growth slows for an extended period after a financial crisis. We construct a model in which the one-time buildup of debt can depress the economy persistently even when there is no shock on financial technology. We consider the debt dynamics of a firm under an endogenous borrowing constraint. When the initial debt is large, the borrowing constraint binds tight and production is inefficient for an extended period. A firm is called debt-ridden when it owes the maximum sustainable amount of debt. A debt-ridden firm pays all income every period as the interest payment on the debt. A noticeable result in the deterministic case is that a debt-ridden firm continues inefficient production permanently. Further, if the initial debt exceeds a certain threshold, the firm chooses to increase borrowing and become debt-ridden intentionally. The emergence of a substantial number of debt-ridden firms lowers economic growth persistently by reducing the growth rate of aggregate productivity. As lenders have no incentive to reduce debt, a policy intervention that provides debtridden borrowers with relief from excessive debt may thus be necessary to restore economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichiro Kobayashi & Daichi Shirai, 2018. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Economic Slowdown," CIGS Working Paper Series 18-003E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnn:wpaper:18-003e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cigs.canon/uploads/2020/08/18-003E_kobayashi_shirai.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Nakajima, Takanobu & Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?: Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 53-78, September.
    2. Urban J. Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Financial innovations and macroeconomic volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    3. Andrea Pescatori & Murat Tasci, 2011. "Search frictions and the labor wedge," Working Papers (Old Series) 1111, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2017. "Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses during the Great Recession," Working Papers 17-01, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Daisuke Ikeda & Takushi Kurozumi, 2019. "Slow Post-financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 82-112, October.
    7. Shin‐ichi Fukuda & Jun‐ichi Nakamura, 2011. "Why Did ‘Zombie’ Firms Recover in Japan?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 1124-1137, July.
    8. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    10. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, April.
    12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2000. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1179-1232, July.
    13. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    14. Robert Shimer, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: The Labor Wedge," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 280-297, January.
    15. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    17. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    18. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    19. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro, 2011. "A Model of Financial Crises: Coordination failure due to bad assets," Discussion papers 11010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2006. "Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 418-440, December.
    21. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    22. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Dilip Abreu & Faruk Gul, 2000. "Bargaining and Reputation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 85-118, January.
    24. Keisuke Otsu, 2011. "Accounting for Japanese Business Cycles: A Quest for Labor Wedges," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 143-170, November.
    25. Romain Duval & Gee Hee Hong & Yannick Timmer & Philip Strahan, 2020. "Financial Frictions and the Great Productivity Slowdown," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 475-503.
    26. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
    27. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    29. Lamont, Owen, 1995. "Corporate-Debt Overhang and Macroeconomic Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1106-1117, December.
    30. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    31. Brinca, P. & Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, P.J. & McGrattan, E., 2016. "Accounting for Business Cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1013-1063, Elsevier.
    32. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    33. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
    34. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    35. Lee E. Ohanian, 2002. "Why did productivity fall so much during the Great Depression?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 26(Spr).
    36. Douglas Gale & Martin Hellwig, 1985. "Incentive-Compatible Debt Contracts: The One-Period Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(4), pages 647-663.
    37. Schneider, Dorothee, 2011. "The labor share: A review of theory and evidence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-069, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    38. Rui Albuquerque & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2004. "Optimal Lending Contracts and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(2), pages 285-315.
    39. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1998. "Is there always too little research in endogenous growth with expanding product variety?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 61-69, January.
    40. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    41. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2017. "Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses During the Great Recession," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 271-316.
    42. Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage, Default, and Forgiveness: Lessons from the American and European Crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 313-333.
    43. Altavilla, Carlo & Pariès, Matthieu Darracq & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2019. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    44. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    45. Mark Doms & Eric J. Bartelsman, 2000. "Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 569-594, September.
    46. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "A Dual Method of Empirically Evaluating Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium Models with Market Distortions, Applied to the Great Depression & World War II," NBER Working Papers 8775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    48. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Shirai, Daichi, 2016. "Heterogeneity And Redistribution In Financial Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1527-1549, September.
    49. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2010. "After the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 17-60.
    50. Mr. Murat Tasci & Mr. Andrea Pescatori, 2011. "Search Frictions and the Labor Wedge," IMF Working Papers 2011/117, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    52. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    53. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    54. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
    55. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2010. "Redistributive shocks and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 931-948, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2024. "Financial shocks to banks, R&D investment, and recessions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 999-1022, July.
    2. Gareth Anderson & Mr. Mehdi Raissi, 2018. "Corporate Indebtedness and Low Productivity Growth of Italian Firms," IMF Working Papers 2018/033, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2021. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in Zimbabwe: A Dynamic Multivariate Causality Test," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 173-196.
    4. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Sovereign debt and economic growth in Zimbabwe: Amultivariate causal linkage," Working Papers 25680, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    5. Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2020. "Trade, Growth, and the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," MPRA Paper 100756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alimov, Behzod, 2019. "Private debt, public debt, and capital misallocation," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 7/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Daichi Shirai, 2012. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Productivity Slowdown," CIGS Working Paper Series 14-005E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    2. Keiichiro KOBAYASHI & Tomoyuki NAKAJIMA & Shuhei TAKAHASHI, 2020. "Lack of debt restructuring and lender's credibility － A theory of nonperforming loans －," CIGS Working Paper Series 20-002E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    3. Keiichiro KOBAYASHI & Daichi SHIRAI, 2024. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Persistent Stagnation," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-001E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    4. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Shirai, Daichi, 2016. "Heterogeneity And Redistribution In Financial Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1527-1549, September.
    5. Shirai, Daichi, 2016. "Persistence and Amplification of Financial Frictions," MPRA Paper 72187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Masaru Inaba, 2006. "Borrowing constraints and protracted recessions," Discussion papers 06011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Tomoyuki Nakajima & Shuhei Takahashi, 2023. "Debt Overhang and Lack of Lender's Commitment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2153-2185, December.
    8. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro, 2012. "Persistent Productivity Decline Due to Corporate Default," Discussion papers 12052, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    10. Masami Imai & Michiru Sawada, 2022. "Does a Financial Crisis Impair Corporate Innovation?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2022-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    11. Bruno Albuquerque, 2024. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints, and the investment nexus," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 766-789, August.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
    13. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    15. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2014. "A macroeconomic model of liquidity crises," KIER Working Papers 876, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
    17. Yoo, Jinhyuk, 2017. "Capital injection to banks versus debt relief to households," IMFS Working Paper Series 111, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    18. Queralto, Albert, 2020. "A model of slow recoveries from financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-25.
    19. Inaba, Masaru & Nutahara, Kengo & Shirai, Daichi, 2022. "What drives fluctuations of labor wedge and business cycles? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnn:wpaper:18-003e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The Canon Institute for Global Studies (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/canonjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.