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Reaching the planners: Generating detailed commodity Forecasts from a computable general equilibrium model

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  • Philip D. Adams
  • Peter B.Dixon
Abstract
The largest computable general equilibrium (CGE) models currently in operation produce forecasts for about 100 commodities (goods and services). This level of detail may seem overwhelming to macroeconomists, but is often inadequate for micro planning. For example, a forecast for business services (a typical commodity at the 100-level) is of marginal interest in planning educational programs for sub-categories of business services such as accountancy, advertising and architecture. As a step towards generating information for micro planning, this paper describes a top-down method for disaggregating CGE forecasts. The method relies on detailed sales data often collected by input-output sections of statistical agencies. An application is reported in which forecasts from a 114-commodity CGE model are disaggregated into forecasts for 780 commodities. Within each of the 114 core commodities, differences in prospects are forecast for sub-commodities reflecting differences in their sales patterns and in the degree to which they face import competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip D. Adams & Peter B.Dixon, 1996. "Reaching the planners: Generating detailed commodity Forecasts from a computable general equilibrium model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-83, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:op-83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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