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Market access in the Western Hemisphere: Implications for the Andean Community

Author

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  • Ricardo Arguello
  • Ernesto Valenzuela
Abstract
This study contributes to the economic assessment of further trade liberalization in the Western Hemisphere over the Andean Community member countries. The most significant trade liberalization scenarios are identified and simulated by means of the standard, constant returns to scale, GTAP model. The main results show little coincidence in the direction of welfare changes for the Andean countries under the four scenarios analyzed. In a very simplified way, further trade liberalization brings welfare losses for Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador-Bolivia, while Venezuela experiences gains under the implementation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas and loses under the implementation of Free Trade Agreements of the other Andean countries with the U.S. Terms of trade effects play a significant role in determining this outcome. In general, they move against these economies, with the notorious exception of Venezuela. It appears that Andean countries have benefited in the past from trade deviation from other regions as they entered into preferential trade agreements. With the erosion of preferential market access embodied in the scenarios simulated, the increase in competition at the import and export levels tend to adjust the standing of these countries, bringing in new challenges for them.*************************************************************************************************************este estudio busca contribuir a la evaluación del impacto económico que una mayor libralización comercial en el Hemisferio Occidental, puede tener sobre los países miembros de la Comunidad Andina. Los escenarios de liberalización comercial más significativos se identifican y simulan, mediante el uso del modelo GTAP en su versión estándar de rendimientos constantes a escala. Los resultads básicos indican una muy baja coincidencia en la dirección de los cambios de bienestar esperables para los países andinos, bajo los cuatro escenarios analizados. De una forma muy simplificada, puede decirse que una mayor liberalización comercial implica pérdidas de bienestar para Colombia, Perú y Ecuador-Bolivia, en tanto que para Venezuela se encuentran ganancias bajo los escenarios que implementan el Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas y pérdidas bajo el que implementa el Acuerdo de Libre Comercio entre sus socios andinos y Estados Unidos. Los términos de intercambio juegan un papel determinante en estos resultados. En general se mueven en contra de estas economías, con la notoria excepción de Venezuela. Al parecer, los países Andinos se han beneficiado en el pasado de la desviación de comercio que otras regiones han sufrido, como una consecuencia de los acuerdos preferenciales de comercio en los cuales los primeros han participado. Con la erosión de acceso preferencial a otros mercados, implícita en los escenarios simulados, el aumento en la competencia tanto por el lado de las exportaciones como por el de las importaciones, tiende a ajustar la posición internacional de estos países, trayendo con ello nuevos retos para el manejo de sus economías.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Arguello & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2005. "Market access in the Western Hemisphere: Implications for the Andean Community," Borradores de Investigación 3188, Universidad del Rosario.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000091:003188
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gouranga Gopal Das & Soamiely Andriamananjara, 2006. "Hub-and-Spokes Free Trade Agreements in the Presence of Technology Spillovers: An Application to the Western Hemisphere," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 33-66, April.
    2. Xinshen Diao & Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Scenarios for Trade Integration in the Americas," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 33-51.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Miguel, Carlos J. & Durán Lima, José Elías & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United States: effects on trade, production and welfare," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    2. De Miguel, Carlos J. & Durán Lima, José Elías & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    3. Iannelli, Norberto & Giordano, Paolo & Volpe Martincus, Christian & Zeballos, Erick, 2006. "Perú: Documento de Discusión sobre Comercio e Integración," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2448, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Norberto Iannelli & Paolo Giordano & Christian Volpe Martincus & Erick Zeballos, 2006. "Perú: Documento de Discusión sobre Comercio e Integración," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9251, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade liberalization; Andean Community; Market access;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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