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Choques migratorios y mercado de crédito formal: evidencia de Colombia

Author

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  • Moreno-Ardila, Angie Natalia

    (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract
En esta investigación exploro el efecto de un choque migratorio sobre el comportamiento del equilibrio del mercado de crédito formal en el país receptor. En particular, estudio el choque migratorio desde Venezuela sobre las dinámicas del crédito formal en los municipios de Colombia. Considero dos estrategias de identificación: aíslo variación exógena de los flujos migratorios utilizando un instrumento de tipo Bartik y un modelo de Diferencias-en- Diferencias. Encuentro que la llegada de venezolanos redujo el valor de la cartera de crédito en los municipios receptores. Por un lado, un aumento de una desviación estándar en los flujos predichos disminuye el valor total de los desembolsos en 3,2 por ciento. Por otro lado, en los municipios de alta migración, después de la intensificación del choque migratorio en 2015 la cartera de crédito disminuye en promedio 7,6 por ciento. Exploro dos mecanismos por los cuales la migración afecta el equilibrio del mercado de crédito: el efecto de la percepción de riesgo e incertidumbre en el nivel de riesgo efectivo de la cartera de crédito; y el efecto de un choque a la demanda de migrantes a causa de un programa de amnistía otorgado en 2018.

Suggested Citation

  • Moreno-Ardila, Angie Natalia, 2023. "Choques migratorios y mercado de crédito formal: evidencia de Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20941, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:020941
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/handle/1992/70979/dcede2023-35.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migración; Sistema financiero; Crédito.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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