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Lessons From the Latest Data on U.S. Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs
  • Simon van Norden
Abstract
La croissance de la productivité est examinée par les macro-économistes car elle joue des rôles clés dans la compréhension de l'épargne dans le secteur privé, les sources des chocs macroéconomiques, l'évolution de la compétitivité internationale et la solvabilité des régimes de retraite publics. Toutefois, les estimations des taux de croissance de la productivité anticipées et conjoncturelles souffrent de deux problèmes potentiels : (i) les estimations des tendances récentes sont imprécises, et (ii) les données récemment publiées subissent souvent d'importantes révisions. Cette étude met en évidence la (non-) fiabilité de plusieurs mesures de croissance de la productivité agrégée aux États-Unis en examinant la mesure dans laquelle elles sont révisées au fil du temps. Nous examinons également dans quelle mesure ces révisions contribuent aux erreurs dans les prévisions de croissance de la productivité des États-Unis. Nous constatons que les révisions de données provoquent généralement des changements appréciables des estimations des taux de croissance de la productivité publiés à travers une gamme de différentes mesures de la productivité. D'importantes révisions surviennent souvent des années après la première publication des données, ce qui contribue significativement à l'incertitude générale à laquelle nos décideurs politiques doivent faire face. Cela souligne le besoin de moyens pour réduire l'incertitude à laquelle sont confrontés les décideurs politiques et les politiques robustes à l'incertitude sur les conditions économiques actuelles. La croissance de la productivité est examinée par les macro-économistes car elle joue des rôles clés dans la compréhension de l'épargne dans le secteur privé, les sources des chocs macroéconomiques, l'évolution de la compétitivité internationale et la solvabilité des régimes de retraite publics. Toutefois, les estimations des taux de croissance de la productivité anticipées et conjoncturelles souffrent de deux problèmes potentiels : (i) les estimations des tendances récentes sont imprécises, et (ii) les données récemment publiées subissent souvent d'importantes révisions. Cette étude met en évidence la (non-) fiabilité de plusieurs mesures de croissance de la productivité agrégée aux États-Unis en examinant la mesure dans laquelle elles sont révisées au fil du temps. Nous examinons également dans quelle mesure ces révisions contribuent aux erreurs dans les prévisions de croissance de la productivité des États-Unis. Nous constatons que les révisions de données provoquent généralement des changements appréciables des estimations des taux de croissance de la productivité publiés à travers une gamme de différentes mesures de la productivité. D'importantes révisions surviennent souvent des années après la première publication des données, ce qui contribue significativement à l'incertitude générale à laquelle nos décideurs politiques doivent faire face. Cela souligne le besoin de moyens pour réduire l'incertitude à laquelle sont confrontés les décideurs politiques et les politiques robustes à l'incertitude sur les conditions économiques actuelles.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Simon van Norden, 2010. "Lessons From the Latest Data on U.S. Productivity," CIRANO Working Papers 2010s-46, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2010s-46
    as

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    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2010s-46.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivité; analyses en temps réel; révisions de données; projections Greenbook projections ; Productivité; analyses en temps réel; révisions de données; projections Greenbook projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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