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China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. In Pursuit of a “Moderately Prosperous Society”

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Listed:
  • Michel Aglietta
  • Guo Bai
Abstract
Chinese reform is an endogenous process that feeds on its own contradictions, and creates its own way through stages, interspersed by crises that are part of the reform. The Directives paper issued by the central committee of the CCP at its third plenum in November 2013 is a theoretical compendium of a strategic view of the reform. The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), adopted in March 2016 by the People’s National Assembly of China, is the most articulated document to date and explains the objectives and their implementation over the next five years. In order to understand the Plan, this paper focuses on six paramount objectives from this long and detailed document: shift from capital accumulation-led growth to innovation-led growth; integrated urban-rural development; green development; inclusive development; finance and State-owned Enterprise-(SOE) reform; opening up to the world. The process of reform is acknowledged to be under way. The paper analyzes the objectives identified and their content and it highlights their interdependencies to underline the comprehensive “new normal” strategy. Quantitative targets: • Bottom line: 6.5% annual average growth GDP from 2016 to 2020 to double 2010 GDP per capita. • R&D expenditure: 2.5% GDP in 2020 from 2.1% in 2015. • Urbanization rate: 60% of population in 2020 from 56.1% in 2015. • Green development: by 2020 to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 40, to 45% compared to 2005 levels. Increase the share of non-fossil fuel energy to 15% by 2020. • Social welfare: lift 55.75 million more people out of poverty by 2020. One-child limit increased to two children per couple. Extend coverage of urban welfare services to all residents. • Financial targets: merge 106 SOEs under central government ownership into 40 world-class groups in strategic industries. Achieve full Yuan convertibility by 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Guo Bai, 2016. "China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. In Pursuit of a “Moderately Prosperous Society”," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-12, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepipb:2016-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2015. "Currency turmoil in an unbalanced world economy," Post-Print hal-01410656, HAL.
    2. Michel Aglietta & Étienne Espagne, 2015. "Financing energy and low-carbon investment: public guarantees and the ECB," CEPII Policy Brief 2015-06, CEPII research center.
    3. David Dollar & Benjamin F. Jones, 2013. "China: An Institutional View of an Unusual Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 19662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
    6. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2015. "Currency turmoil in an unbalanced world economy," Post-Print hal-01410654, HAL.
    7. Matthieu Bussière & Julia Schmidt & Natacha Valla, 2018. "International Financial Flows in the New Normal: Key Patterns (and Why We Should Care)," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 249-269, Springer.
    8. Christophe Destais, 2016. "Central Bank Currency Swaps and the International Monetary System," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 2253-2266, October.
    9. Michel Aglietta & Etienne Espagne, 2015. "Financing energy and low-carbon investment: public guarantees and the ECB," Working Papers hal-01671394, HAL.
    10. Natacha Valla & Jesper Berg & Laurent Clerc & Olivier Garnier & Erik Nielsen, 2015. "A holistic approach to ECB asset purchases, the Investment Plan and CMU," CEPII Policy Brief 2015-07, CEPII research center.
    11. Natacha Valla & Thomas Brand & Sébastien Doisy, 2014. "A New Architecture for Public Investment in Europe," CEPII Policy Brief 2014-04, CEPII research center.
    12. Cecilia Bellora & Sébastien Jean, 2016. "Granting Market Economy Status to China in the EU: An Economic Impact Assessment," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-11, CEPII research center.
    13. Etienne Espagne, 2016. "Climate Finance at COP21 and After: Lessons Learnt," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-09, CEPII research center.
    14. Benjamin Carton & Jérôme Héricourt & Fabien Tripier, 2014. "Can the Euro Area Avoid a “Lost Decade”?," CEPII Policy Brief 2014-02, CEPII research center.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation-led growth; green development; State-owned enterprises (SOEs); debt cleaning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P11 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

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