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Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander F. Wagner

    (University of Zurich, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI), and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Richard J. Zeckhauser

    (Harvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

  • Alexandre Ziegler

    (University of Zurich)

Abstract
Donald Trump’s election was a significant surprise. The reaction of company stock prices to the election reflects shifts in investor expectations about economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. High-beta stocks outperformed, presumably due to strengthened growth expectations. Expectations of significant corporate tax cuts boosted high-tax firms, but hurt firms with significant net operating loss carryforward balances. Investors currently perceive the climate to be more favorable for domestically-oriented companies than those with substantial foreign involvement. Markets incorporated expectations on growth and tax policy into stock prices relatively quickly; they took more time to digest the consequences of shifts in trade policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander F. Wagner & Richard J. Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2017. "Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-06, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1706
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    File URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers2.cfm?abstract_id=2909835
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    2. Michael J. Barclay, 2003. "Price Discovery and Trading After Hours," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1041-1073.
    3. Schwert, G William, 1981. "Using Financial Data to Measure Effects of Regulation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(1), pages 121-158, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2020. "The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Which Firms Won? Which Lost?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Zhang, Si Ying, 2021. "Using equity market reactions and network analysis to infer global supply chain interdependencies in the context of COVID-19," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Alexander F. Wagner & Richard J. Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2017. "Paths to Convergence: Stock Price Behavior After Donald Trump's Election," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-36, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Feb 2018.
    4. Yi Huang & Chen Lin & Sibo Liu & Heiwai Tang, 2018. "Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”," IHEID Working Papers 11-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    5. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner & Richard J Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2021. "Investor Rewards to Climate Responsibility: Stock-Price Responses to the Opposite Shocks of the 2016 and 2020 U.S. Elections [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 748-787.
    6. Ziemowit Bednarek & Jacqueline Doremus & Sarah Stith, 2021. "U.S. Cannabis Laws Projected to Cost Generic and Brand Pharmaceutical Firms Billions," Working Papers 2102, California Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Pedro L. Angosto‐Fernández & Victoria Ferrández‐Serrano, 2022. "Independence day: Political risk and cross‐sectional determinants of firm exposure after the Catalan crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4318-4335, October.
    8. Brownback, Andy & Novotny, Aaron, 2018. "Social desirability bias and polling errors in the 2016 presidential election," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 38-56.
    9. de Area Leão Pereira, Eder Johnson & da Silva, Marcus Fernandes & da Cunha Lima, I.C. & Pereira, H.B.B., 2018. "Trump’s Effect on stock markets: A multiscale approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 241-247.
    10. Daniele Girardi, 2018. "Political shocks and financial markets : regression-discontinuity evidence from national elections," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2018-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier & Collins, Christopher G. & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Pellet, Thomas & Wilson, Beth Anne, 2018. "A year of rising dangerously? The U.S. stock market performance in the aftermath of the presidential election," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 489-502.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; event study; corporate taxes; trade policy; corporate interest payments; post-news drift; election surprise;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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